EFTA Document EFTA01460059

Charts of the Month — March/April 2016 Changes to 2016 GDP Estimate 7.0% - The biggest change to our World GDP estimate came 6.0% • from the U.S. which was downgraded from 2.4% to 1.9% in 2016. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% -r 2.0% ... 0.0% U.S. Europe UK Japan China World ■ November 2015 Forecast for 2016 GDP ■ March 2016 Forecast For 2016 GDP U.S. Valuations "Stretched" 20x lax 16x 14x 12x 10x The recent rally in equities has pushed valuations to levels that warrant caution. '11 • 12 13 '14 --- (AVG) SW 500 Trailing P/E — S&P 500 Trailing PIE notnotes. Data as of March "c. 2016. '15 Global Sovereign Yields Highly Correlated Production Cuts Good; More Needed 6% The ECBS aggressive central bank actions have pushed sovereign rates across Europe lower. keeping the rise in U.S. rates muted. 4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 — Germany 10 Year Yield — US Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield Italy Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield — Spain Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield - France Benchmark Bond 10 Year Yield Footnotes: Data as of March i C . Source. FactSet, Deutsche Bank Wealth Managemeni 10,000 • 9.000 8.000 al 7.000 6.000 5.000 4,000 According to the Department of Energy total oil production has fallen by nearly 600 milh'on lob's/day. However. supply is still too high and will need to come down before a more meaningful rebound in oil prices is seen. Jan•10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 DOE Crude Oil Production Footnotes: Data rs as of March 18. 201E Source. Bloomberg Finance LF, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Deutsche Bank Wealth Management 20 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 120959 SDNY_GM_00267143 EFTA01460059