EFTA Document EFTA01461322

These premiums are very low compared to the potential retums if USDCNH turns higher. Implied vol is approx. 3% The complacency and positioning among FX and FX options participants in USDCNH is high • USDCNH 6.8000 6.7000 6.6000 63000 6.4000 6.3000 6.2000 6.1000 0 2012 201.3 20 :ally OlUANMCS-at-ANXII4 Copyngh€ 2,01.4 Elortberg :rate L. I '.cal %nth ',cmn.1O11 of liloonther? Fin:m,:e I P • PBoC has significantly tightened money market rates to curb shadow banking and asset speculation Shan hai interbank offered rate fixin. - 1 month 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 I 20 SHIF1M Index (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate Fixing - 1 Month) Daily 293A142009 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P. 28-Jan-2014 17:58:51 10.0000 8.0000 7.3330 6.0000 4.0000 2.0000 %%all pcnnn.ton of Fil(Nwol,.,- in,. I l' • The recent headlines on bad loans in China's shadow banking industry have raised concerns of a systemic event China's trust industry has relatively high risk shadow banking products given the liquidity risks. These products have seen rapid growth since 2010, reaching Rmb10.1 to as of 3Q13 with a 2010-3Q13 CAGR of 55%. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 123293 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00269477 EFTA01461322