EFTA Document EFTA01459727

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet This supports our baseline case - that the UK will vote, on June 23, to remain in the EU by a relatively narrow margin roughly similar to that of the Scottish referendum in 2014 (i.e. around 55%145%). Until recently, the opinion polls had been showing broadly equal support for "In" and "Out" (40% each) with 20% unsure. However, polls have generally been moving in favour of the "leave" camp - the latest by YouGov shows a sizable rise