EFTA Document EFTA01459729

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet SIREN based on reference quarters SIREN by refinance quarter captures the macro momentum (Fig. 6) and surprises (Fig. 7) across quarters by summing news based on reference dates. With the advanced estimate of Q4-15 GDP scheduled for next week. SIREN-Momentum continues to point to high 0.4% qoq for euro O4 GDP. Surveys point to 0.5% while hard data are less optimistic. Our forecast for O4 GDP growth is relatively more modest at 0.35%