UBS Emerging Market Bond Outlook and Recommendations (Oct 2012)

UBS Emerging Market Bond Outlook and Recommendations (Oct 2012) The document is a routine financial analysis of emerging market bond spreads with no mention of political figures, financial misconduct, or actionable investigative leads. It provides market forecasts and investment advice, which are publicly available and not sensitive. Key insights: EMBI Global spread at 281bps, CEMBI at 334bps as of 24 Oct 2012.; UBS forecasts modest tightening to 275bps/290bps over six months.; Positive scenario predicts spreads tightening below 240bps; negative scenario warns of spikes to 555bps/750bps.