EFTA Document EFTA01451139

9 January 2014 FX Blueprint: Thin end of the wedge Theme #1: Holler for dollars • We expect the Fed and a recovery in US equity inflows to be the two main pillars of support for the dollar in 2014. Buy USD vs. NZD, CHF and SGD on cycle and extreme valuation. • The Euro-area current account remains supportive for the euro, but tight liquidity is fully priced, the risk of negative rates is material, portfolio inflows are peaking and we are reaching the 20% FX over- valuation bound. Buy