EFTA01459576

Review of 2015 Themes Investment Theme Good, but Not "Great Expectations" Diverging Dynamics in Monetary Policy Fixed Income — Shooting at Small Targets EM Fixed Income - Hard Pressed DM Equities- "Earning"Their Way Higher Dividend Stocks Sector Focus EM Equities - Honey I Shrunk the Growth Premium Dollar Dominance to Continue Real Assets — Rank Rattle and Roll Deutsche Bank ttic-c-ht Investment Theme Recommendation Dial Down Return Expectations as Valuations are Less Attractive and Volatility is to Increase U.S. to be the Developed Market eader, Leading to Diverging Monetary Policy Slight Rise in Treasury Yields: Favor 1vestment Grade and High Yield over Treasuries Favor EM Hard Currency Bonds over EM Local Currency Bonds Accommodative Policy Will Dnve Global Equities Higher S&P will Post Positive Returns for Seventh Year Favor Dividend Paying Stocks The NASDAQ will reach a record high. Favor Consumer Discretionary and Info Tech Favor DM Equities over EM Within EM, favor Asia over LATAM The Dollar Will Continue to Rally in 2015. Invest on a Currency Hedged Basis Favor REITs and Infrastructure Over Crude Oil and Gold Grade Total Score for 2015 = 90% Rationale S&P 500 PE contracted for the first time since 2011 and average daily S&P 500 volatility (16. 7)was the highest since 2012. FX and Treasury Volatility also increased. The U.S. is on path to post 2 2% growth compared to 1 4% in Europe and 0.8% in Japan. The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2006. while the ECB announced QE 10 Year treasury yields rose only 10 bps throughout 2015 However, both high yield and investment grade credit underperformed treasuries. EM hard currency bonds significantly outperformed both local currency bonds and the Barclays Agg by 1167 bps and 74 bps, respectively. While the S&P 500 is on pace to post slightly positive earnings and returns for the seventh straight year. On the back of weaker currencies, Europe and Japanese earnings outpaced the V.S. Both the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index (+0.93%) and the EuroStoxx 50 (7 3%) were positive in 2015 The NASDAQ reached a record high in 2015 Both consumer discretionary (+10 1%) and info tech (+5.9%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+1.4%). DM equities (MSCI EAFE -0.4% USD) outperformed EM equities (MSCI EM' -14.6% USD) by 1421 bps Within EM. Asia outperformed LATAM by 2192 bps. The Dollar rose -9% in 2015 and has rallied against every major currency. While the MSCI AC World is down 1.8% in USD terms, it is up 1.8% in local terms. While REITs (+2.8%) outperformed both gold (-10.5%) and crude oil (-30.5%), infrastructure (-14.4%) lagged gold returns. Footnotes. Data as of December 31, 2015. Source: FactSet, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bark' "V”. " 1- 31 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 120080 SDNY_GM_00266264 EFTA01459576