EFTA01459620

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet I3. Lower production costs weighing on output prices j4. As reported by firms ea — Menu! PMI. cutout Pocas EUR 35 Jan-04 Jen-05 Jan-08 Jan-10 Save. KS. anew Dasesais • • Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-15 1 .is EC. seeing once moutons (Errn lead) —PPI owe consumer goods (ohs) 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source Sicarnforp — LA N . dumb* Sod On the non-core side, food inflation has slowed, and more could be in store. Energy prices are likely to fall further in February, but at current oil prices could be expected to stabilise from March (which would still imply falling y/y energy inflation into the spring). These assumptions would mean headline y/y inflation close to zero in the coming two months, and a 2016 average around 0.2%. 3.0 2.5 20 1.5 10 0.0 A.5 -1.0 2015 2017 j Page 16 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120160 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266344 EFTA01459620