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From:
Richard Kahn
Sent:
Wednesday, August 1, 2018 2:32 AM
To:
Jeffrey Epstein
Subject:
Fwd: Apple, Inc.: A Clean Beat on the Path to $1 Trillion
Rich=rd Kahn
HBRK Associates Inc.
575 Lexington Avenue, 4th Floor<=div>
New York, NY 10022
Begin forwarded m=ssage:
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&nb=p;
Katy L. Huberty= CFA — Morgan Stanley
August 1, 2018 2:18 AM =GMT
We see more=upside than downside risk to the upcoming iPhone product cycle and a buildi=g Services narrative. Even if
device revenue growth slows, Services and We=rables can pick up the slack, delivering 5% revenue and 14% EPS growth
annu=lly through CY20, supporting our SOTP-driven $232 PT.
Estimates move higher on iPhone ASPs, Services, Wearables. F3Q revenue (+17%=Y/Y) beat expectations largely on
iPhone ASPs (+20%) and Services (+31% re=orted, 28% normalized) with wearables (+37% Y/Y) maintaining momentum
from p=evious quarters. Sept Q guidance also topped expectations and reflects a=similar mid teens revenue growth rate
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for the overall company despite the m=re difficult compare from a year ago. The combination of a strong macro
e=vironment and an increasingly engaged customer base led to double digit gro=th in all regions on a sell-in basis during
the June quarter. After flowin= through the stronger results - namely higher F4Q revenue, slightly offset b= higher OpEx,
plus stronger LT Services and wearables growth - our FY18 EPS=increases to $11.75 (from $11.45) and FY19 EPS
increases to $14.12 (from $1=.00). Our $232 SOTP-driven price target is unchanged after raising our rev=nue forecast
modestly, shifting to CY19, and considering recent multiple co=pression at Services peers (Facebook, Tencent, Alibaba).
What we learned f=om Apple's F3Q18 earnings:(+) Services narrative gains momentum with refere=ces to strong
pipeline of new services. Services revenue grew 31% Y/Y, ab=ve consensus expectations of 26% Y/Y and more in-line
with our 32% Y/Y fore=ast. However, backing out a $236M one-time legal benefit implies 28% Y/Y no=malized growth. In
the June quarter, paid subscriptions to Apple Services t=pped 300M users (+60% Y/Y) and the App Store, AppleCare,
Apple Music, iClou= and Apple Pay all set new June quarterly revenue records. For the App Stor=, results were even
more impressive when considering the Chinese government=reportedly slowed the process o
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APPLE INC.
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Disclosures:
Please see the full report for risks, dis=losures and other important information.
Important disclo=ures regarding the relationship between the companies that are r=ferenced in Morgan
Stanley research and Morgan Stanley Wealth Manage=ent research are available on the Morgan Stanley Wealth
Managem=nt disclosure website at https://www.morganstanley.com/online/researchdisclosures
<https://www.morganstanley.com/online/researchdis=losures> .
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Not Acting as Municipal Ad=isor
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is not acting as a municip=l advisor to any municipal entity or
obligated person within the mean=ng of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act (the "Municipal A=visor Rule") and
the opinions or views contained herein are not i=tended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaning of
the=Municipal Advisor Rule.
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Copyright
The copyright in materials provided by Morgan Stanley is owned by Morgan Sta=ley & Co. LLC. Morgan
Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of M=rgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in
the=United States.
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© 2018 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LL=. Member SIPC.
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