Case File
efta-efta00796528DOJ Data Set 9OtherA unique opportunity to acquire the last remaining super club of Europe
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DOJ Data Set 9
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A unique opportunity to acquire the last remaining super club of Europe
AC Milan Acquisition
July, 2018
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AC Milan History: A-Grade Franchise
Champions Leagues Winners
fl
06/07, 02/03, 93/94
4x European Champions
89/90, 88/89, 68/69, 62/63
18x Italian League Champions
10/11, 03/04, 98/99, 95/96, 93/94, 92/93, 91/92, 87/88, 78/79, 67/68, 61/62, 58/
59, 56/57, 54/55, 50/51, 1906/07, 1905/06, 190O/01
5x Italian Cup Winners
02/03, 76/77, 72/73, 71/72, 66/67
7x Italian Super Cup Winners
16/17, 11/12, 04/05, 94/95, 93/94, 92/93, 88/89
lx FIFA Club World Cup Winners
07/08
2x Italian Serie B Champions
82/83, 80/81
3x Intercontinental Cup Winners
90/91, 89/90, 69/70
2x Cup Winners Cup
72/73, 67/68
lx Mitropacup
82/83
5x UEFA Supercup Winner
07/08, 03/04, 94/95, 90/91, 89/90
2
Founded in 1899
1st Most European Titles for an Italian team
2 nd Most European Champions League/European
Cup Wins (behind Real Madrid)
2 nd Most Italian Titles
Located in Italy's economically largest City
The club play in Serie A's largest stadium, the San
Siro, capacity 80,018
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AC Milan: Only European Super Club Available for Sale
Club
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
S
rr 4IP
100
11
12
13
14
15
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Barcelona
Liverpool
Juventus
Bayern Munich
Inter Milan
Manchester United
U
Atletico Madrid
European Titles
League
22
4
17
4
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
Manchester City
Roma
14
11
11
10
8
7
7
5
3
3
2
1
1
0
I I
I I
Owner
Ownership
Nationality
Ownership
Since
Willing Seller
Fan/Member Ownership
1902
No
Restricted from sale
Elliott Management
July 10, 2018
Yes
Foreclosure situation
Fan/Member Ownership
1899
No
Restricted from sale
is
Fenway Sports Group
2010
No
Financially strong
Agnelli Family
1923
No
Financially strong
Fan/Member Ownership
1900
No
Restricted from sale
Zhang Jingdong
2016
No
Improving financially
Glazer Family
2011
No
Financially strong
Gil Family
1987
No
Financially moderate
4
Roman Abramovich
2003
No
Financially strong
Joe Lewis
2001
No
Financially strong
Fan/Member Ownership
1909
No
Restricted from sale
Qatar Sports Investments
2011
No
Financially strong
Kroenke Family
2007
No
Financially strong
Abu Dhabi United Group
2008
No
Financially strong
C
James Pallotta
2011
No
Financially moderate
1
Historic Super Clubs: ■
Owner Subsidized Success:
Recent Organic Success:
3
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Ownership Situation Overview
APRIL, 2017
SUMMER 2017:
TRANSFER MARKET
NOVEMBER, 2017
MARCH, 2018
JUNE 22, 2018
JUNE 27, 2018
JULY 10, 2018
JULY 12, 2018
Chinese businessman, Li Yonghong, closes the acquisition of AC Milan for €740m from Silvio Berlusconi's company, Fininvest. At the time, Mr.
Li, unable to secure debt (€303m) for the deal from conventional sources, resorted to high yield debt to fund the deal. This was provided by
US hedge fund, Elliott Management (at a rumored 11% interest rate).
AC Milan embarked on an aggressive summer transfer market strategy, investing heavily in a number of young players, with two objectives: 1)
rejuvenate the aging squad, 2) get back into the lucrative Champions League. The club record a net transfer spend of €155m.
The New York Times publishes an article noting the doubts around the existence of Mr. Li's business interests in China. UEFA note 'grave
concerns' over Mr. Li's financial stability.
Having retained advisors to source debt from lower cost providers, Mr. Li is rumored to draw further funds from the high cost liquidity facility
provided by Elliott.
Mr. Li fails to meet a €32m interest payment to Elliott Management. AC Milan failed to qualify for the Champions League and record their
lowest revenue figure in a decade. The club are being investigated by UEFA's Financial Fair Play commission. Two US based sport franchise
owners are reportedly interested in acquiring AC Milan, the Ricketts Family (owners of baseball team, the Chicago Cubs), and Roberto
Commisso (owner of US soccer team, New York Cosmos). The bids are rumored to be at the low end of the €500m range.
UEFA finds that AC Milan have breached the 'Break-Even Rule', as a result of their exorbitant transfer spending the previous summer and the
financial instability of their owner. The club are banned from European competition for the 2018/19 season (they had qualified for the Europa
League), and potentially the 2019/20 season. The club may receive a further fine (potentially €20m). The club are appealing the ruling.
Mr. Li fails to meet the deadline to cure the default. Elliott takes control of the holding company, stating their intention to stabilize the club's
financial situation. However privately and historically have indicated desire to sell the club.
Elliott seeks to appoint a new Board and President of the club. However non-attendance of Chinese Board members precludes a quorum
being met. Elliott will now seek to reconstitute the Board on July 21st. Private discussions with Elliott on sale of the asset gaining pace, in-spite
public statements.
KeffiGroup
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Limited Buyer Universe & Secular Trends
*::
LIMITED
BUYER UNIVERSE
Chinese buyers constrained due to capital flow restrictions currently in place
Russian buyers prevented from entering the market due to sanctions, and political uncertainty
Precluded due to ownership of Paris Saint Germain
Precluded due to ownership of Manchester City
Clear appetite, acknowledgement of secular trends
Cs
Cs
0
SECULAR TRENDS
1. Media landscape moving toward content ownership
2. Increasing demand for European soccer globally, carried by European super clubs
3. Point 2. could culminate in a European super competition. Arsene Wenger commented May, 2018: "The next evolution? Maybe I will see
you in a few years and you will certainly have a European league over the weekends."
4. There are limited assets that are still available to take advantage of 1, 2, 3, bidding up prices on these assets
5. Italian Football in process of renegotiating broadcasting rights
5
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Trading Comp Valuation: implies value around €600m
LTM Revenue
LTM EBIT
EBIT/Rev
Net Debt
Market Cap
Enterprise Value
Manchester Utd
£ 608
£ 61
10%
£ 301
£ 3,379
£ 3,680
Arsenal
£ 414
£ 57
14%
£ 56
£ 2,146
£ 2,202
Juventus
€ 538
€ 34
6%
€ 298
€ 665
€ 963
Roma
€ 175
(€ 33)
€ 209
€ 290
€ 500
Borussia Dortmund
€ 580
€ 83
14%
(€ 5)
€ 517
€ 512
Mean*
11%
Median*
12%
AC Milan
LTM Revenue
Implied EBIT
Normalized EBIT Margin
EV/EBIT
EV/Rev
60.4x
38.6x
33.4x
3.4x
33.6x
6.1x
5.3x
1.8x
2.9x
Implied EV
Selected EV/EBIT Selected EV/Rev
High Case
€ 196
€ 22
11%
€ 728
Mean Case
€ 196
€ 22
11%
€ 662
Base Case
€ 196
€ 22
11%
€ 622
Roma Case
€ 196
€ 559
33.4
(43
28.6
Analysis: Previous bids in the low €500m range, below market valuations based on peer multiples
• Base Case (derived from Juventus EBIT multiple) to Mean Case (derived from peer group mean revenue multiple)
represents most applicable valuation range
• High case derived does not capture the club's current distress, therefore club should trade at a discount to this
• EBIT has been normalized to peer mean — the club announced a €28m EBITDA figure on June 25, 2018
• Trading comps do not capture the control premium, and the lack of trading liquidity in some of the stocks can
artificially depress the value of the corresponding club
Sources: Publicly available financial information
Excludes Roma's EBIT/Rev & EV/EBIT figures due to negative operating earnings
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