Robert Lawrence Kuhn

Robert Lawrence Kuhn Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, international corporate strategist and investment banker, and a renowned expert on China. He is a commentator on the BBC, CNN, CGTN, CCTV, CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, and other media; senior political/economics commentator on China Global Television Network (CGTN); and a columnist in China Daily and South China Morning Post. For 30 years, Dr. Kuhn has worked with China's state leaders and advised the Chinese government. He spoke at the launch ceremony of President Xi Jinping's book, The Governance of China; he provided live commentary on CNN for Xi's policy address during his U.S. state visit (2015); and he introduced to foreign audiences Xi as "core" of the CPC (2016). He is interviewed extensively on US-China relations, including the trade war (2018). For the 19th CPC National Congress (October 2017) and 13th National People's Congress (March 2018), Dr. Kuhn was interviewed extensively, including 24 times on CNN and BBC World News / BBC World Service, and he was quoted in newspapers and websites in U.S., Hong Kong, Italy, India, etc. His full-page, in-depth analyses of the 19th CPC National Congress were featured in China Daily to open the CPC Congress ("Historical Starting Point for New Stage of Development") and to close the CPC Congress ("New Era on the Road to 2050"). His essay at the opening of the Party Congress was published in People's Daily. Dr. Kuhn is the author of How China's Leaders Think (featuring President Xi), and The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin (China's best-selling book of 2005). He wrote the Introduction for Understanding the CPC, the book series by China's ruling party, the Communist Party of China (2015). Shanghai Media Group and Dr. Kuhn are co-creators and co-producers of the award-winning, five- part series China's Challenges, broadcast internationally (PBS stations in the U.S.) and in China. Dr. Kuhn is writer and host; Peter Getzels is director. China's Challenges won first prize in China News Awards twice (2013, 2018). A second season won an Emmy Award (Los Angeles, 2016). A third season (on "Xi Jinping Thought" and China 2020 / China 2050) is broadcast in late 2018. Dr. Kuhn is the creator, co-producer and host of "Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn" on CGTN (China Global Television Network, co-created by Adam Zhu), the weekly series with unique access that features China's thought leaders and decision makers, broadcast globally and in China. Closer To China focuses on China's politics and government, CPC/Party, economics and society, reform and development, and international affairs and relations, with emphasis on Xi's policies and philosophy. A special documentary on President Xi's "targeted poverty alleviation" campaign, co-produced by CGTN, Dr. Kuhn and Adam Zhu, is in production. Dr. Kuhn is host and writer. Peter Getzels is director. Dr. Kuhn was one of only two Americans, with Henry Kissinger, named as the first "China Visionaries". He was selected by Oriental Outlook magazine (Xinhua News Agency) as one of the all-time, top-ten influential supporters of China's ruling party/CPC (he is the only one living). An international corporate strategist and investment banker, Dr. Kuhn works with major multinational corporations, CEOs and C-Suite executives, in formulating and implementing China strategies by applying his "politico-strategic framework". He was president/co-owner of the largest middle-market firm in the U.S. (sold to Citigroup in 2000). Dr. Kuhn is creator, writer and host of Closer To Truth (produced and directed by Peter Getzels), the long-running PBS/public television series on science and philosophy (broadcast continually since 2000, over 275 TV episodes; more are in production). Dr. Kuhn is author or editor of over 30 books on China, corporate strategy, finance, science and philosophy (including, with the philosopher John Leslie, The Mystery of Existence: Why is there Anything At All). Dr. Kuhn is chairman of The Kuhn Foundation which supports new knowledge in science and philosophy, classical music, and informed relations between the United States and China. The Kuhn Foundation produced the feature documentary "Khachaturian" on the life and music of the Armenian-Russian composer Aram Khachaturian, which won the Best Documentary award at the Hollywood Film Festival. Dr. Kuhn has a B.A. Human Biology (Johns Hopkins); . Anatomy/Brain Research (University of California at Los Angeles, UCLA); MBA (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT). EFTA00800267 CNN Quest Means Business Future of U.S.-China Trade Relations Robert Lawrence Kuhn, August 27, 2018 TRUMP ON CHINA TRADE: "NOT THE RIGHT TIME TO TALK" WIWI LIVE 835 PM GMT QUEST MEANS BUSINESS 1 EFTA00800268 Ai?" CNBC CNBC Squawk on the Street US-China Tariffs - US-China Trade War Robert Lawrence Kuhn, August 22, 2018 CNBC MENU MARKETS BUSINESS NEWS INVESTING TECH POLITICS CNBC TV SEARCH US and China have self- fulfilling prophecies on both sides for trade... 10:40 AM ET Wed. 22 Aug 2018 Robert Kuhn, China government advisor and "How China's Leaders Think" author, discusses his expectations for the next round of U.S: trade talks that begin today. L- --7111 WATCH CNBC LIVE TV 600 1 EFTA00800269 FOE BUSINESS FOX BUSINESS Mornings With Maria (Maria Bartiromo) US-China Tariffs - US-China Trade War Robert Lawrence Kuhn, August 23, 2018 PX4 SINESS Or— IS Watch Live 4 imb. . sta. I •„. For video troubleshooting and help click here News Clips gri for Will tariffs change China's behavior on intellectual property theft? Aug. 23, 2018 - 5:26 - 'Closer to China with R.L. Kuhn host Robert Kuhn on the impact of mounting trade tensions with China. • HtrrLERT U.S. VS. CHINA - 12.1.±'_ ctMomingsMaria fillPnreni foxbusiness.com/channelfinder Fox Business Channel Finder Find the Fox Business Network in your area. Find Now EFTA00800270 4117:\ 5 8 01 r RIX linencivcoml 0F5/otIttitl). 01110fl00016. NUN. 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Thanks so much for joining us here on the program. Usually the NPC is seen as sort of a choreographed event: we know what to expect. But this time it felt very different. RLK: It certainly was different. You have to look at this year's National People's EFTA00800272 B B C Congress - and the so-called Two Sessions - as part of the "political season" which begins with the party congress in October and goes now to the government sessions in March. And normally there is a predictability and what happens at the National People's Congress is not very significant. --- -- 4- , 1111 Ilk 's . --_, - ,__- lit .4, -,.. i p litst, -, _ ._ •-• a Art IMPACT CHINA'S NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS CLOSES Xi: China would defeat any attempt to divide country MN WORLD NEWS EURO 1.1407 ', CS 1.4 • C HKS 10.5E . RLK: This year is different: China talks about a "New Era" - and this is not just words, it is really the case. If we look at the vision that Xi Jinping gave at the party congress, what we see here at the National People's Congress we see as the implementation of that vision across a very broad front. LIVE Boiling lart; AS .. 1 \ gi v P '11•1 T VS. APOIMEn - 1 SIPOMPM. . _ - - -- k ill• - awl. _ sh Se sea _ •3ii CHINA'S NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS CLOSES lows officials to visit island rwirq WONT. n NEWS EN 106.43 1NEOSITE YOU CAN GET MORE ON ALL THE 2 EFTA00800273 B B C RLK: People have focused on term limits - understandably so - but the change is only for the presidency. Xi Jinping by having been made "Core" of the Party in October 2016 - actually with that designation undermined "collective leadership" - and when Xi's name was put into the Party Constitution as the contemporary arbiter of Marxism - on which the Party is based and the Party rules the country - he then became the overarching leader, no would hold. LIVE Local Time 22:05 ...-. \ t I? 1:4' ;44, in ill. ._ 'LA "Ipsommes SRO -. -4, _ ,ffr . t i.... t .. . , a -.gum CHINA'S NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS CLOSES Xi spoke of a "China solution" to world problems CICHil WORLD NEWS DRIES AT blec.corninews • CHECK OUT OUR FACEBOC LIVE Time 22:05 •I4 in t F- t .i IIISP---- --------" r matter what position he f a .‘10 .gs tl Ilk el' . ire I. - \I CHINA'S NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS CLOSES Xi spoke of a "China solution" to world problems BBC • • • • • . • 3 EFTA00800274 CNN International President Xi Jinping, China, Term Limits Robert Lawrence Kuhn - March 12, 2018 HOST: Let's talk about President Xi Jinping with our gues,t Robert Lawrence Kuhn, a longtime advisor to the Chinese government, the author of How China's Leaders Think, and the host of Closer to China with R.L. Kuhn on the China Global Television Network. Thanks for being with us. RLK: Hi Natalie. Interesting day we're having. HOST: Isn't it, though? So, I guess the first question would be to follow up on your book title, how China's leaders think. What is Xi Jinping thinking with this move? PARLIAMENT VOTES TO END PRESIDENTIAL TERM LIMITS EFTA00800275 RLK: First of all, we have to understand it in context. There are twenty-one different clauses in this Constitutional Amendment, and the whole point of it is to strengthen the governance system of China. Now China is a party-state system where the party controls the state. Everyone is focusing on the abolition of term limits, and it is important, but we need to understand the context within this party-state system. In October of 2016, Xi Jinping was made "Core" of the Party, which meant the collective leadership of the past was no longer operative; that X was, in essence, for the Party, the decision maker. Then just this last October at the 19th CPC National Congress, his name was put into the Party Constitution as "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,"... it's a big phrase. 4:33PM PARLIAMENT VOTES TO END PRESIDENTIAL TERM LIMITS Author. "How China's Leaders Think RLK: But what it means is that Xi is the arbiter of Marxism and party theory. That means in terms of being the Core of the Party and the interpreter of Marxism that gives him ultimate power. He doesn't even need a formal position when has those two and the Party continues to run the country. HOST: Is that a good thing? How can it be a good thing for the country when one person has the ultimate power? RLK: There are two issues. One is how it happened: Now the abolition of presidential term limits coordinates with the Party and military, together the three largest positions. So they're now coordinated because he already had that power in the Party and the military. -4; r*,% -07" • 4r...rip, *** ;yr •• • IP mos Mr IF emO re • ...amp.. in:I= • is Or . CHINA PAESIDENCY...r.""" 2 EFTA00800276 Amanpour on CNN President Xi Jinping, China, Term Limits Robert Lawrence Kuhn - Minxin Pei March 5, 2018 HOST: When it comes to trade, one country more than any other has been the target of Trump's rhetorical wrath, and that's China. But my next guest tells me that the promised tariffs won't bother China much, as we've been discussing. In any way, they in China are dealing with much more important things, like the proposal for the rubber stamp Party Congress which starts its new session today to change the Constitution, and lift all term limits on President Xi Jinping, effectively making him president for life. Now, I've been talking to Minxin Pei: he's a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California, and to Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who is the author of How China's Leaders Think, and he is the host of a show on the government-run CCTV news channel in Beijing. Gentlemen welcome to you both. Let me start by asking you, Robert Lawrence Kuhn there in Beijing. From the Chinese government perspective, these tariffs that the president of the United States has announced, how much does it concern Beijing? • 4,4 A a .•• -4,8•0 • 0 • • SOO • • • • • • • • •0 • • I *so 00 • Se Of •••• 415 • .. • 4.• % . • • if 1 • 4 .. •• • • 0 • • • ••• • • • .: • • • ;V • • • . 4 , • • • • . a ••• 500 • • • 00 •• • • 40 • • -0'09 • • II • • • • • 00 '. 2.. 1 • • . • • • 4.6 .. • • • i• • • SO • • • • • • • 0 EFTA00800277 RLK: Well certainly it's a concern, but I would call it a minor annoyance as opposed to something extremely serious. They have a lot on their plate here. The last thing they want is a trade war with the U.S., but they have to react. If the U.S. does something, there has to be something that they will do in retaliation. They will ratchet it down. They will signal, as you do, that they do not want to accelerate this, but to save face and to be appropriate, they'll have to match it. HOST: To you Minxin Pei, how do you see this playing out? MP: If the investigations find China at fault, or guilty of some practices, then the US has a wide range of options to punish China on a trade front. And if these things happen, then US-China trade war will take place. Another thing I want to say is that US-China relations have turned a corner. This is a relationship that has headed toward a long period of confrontation, and adversarial relationships. So what is going to happen on the trade front is part of a much larger picture of geopolitical rivalry, if not competition. 2 EFTA00800278 Bloomberg Bloomberg TV Worldwide President Xi, China, Economy Robert Lawrence Kuhn March 5, 2018 HOST: You were there at the Great Hall of the People. What was your main takeaway from what some have described as Li Kegiang's impossible challenge: how to deleverage, how to take away stimulus, and still keep 6.5% growth? RLK: I don't take the 6.5% growth as the primary objective here. I mean you have to look at what these National Peoples Congresses are. They're not setting the vision and the strategy. That was set at the party congress in October. What we're dealing here is the implementation of the policies. If you attend these every year you know they all look and sound the same because it's the same structure, same kind of structure of numbers, so what you do is look for the differences. What are those subtle differences between one year and another. That's what I focus on at these congresses. HOST: What's the main difference you saw? • LLLienL. 'PtPIP^IPpr 1 EFTA00800279 B B C BBC World News Xi Jinping and the New Politburo Standing Committee Robert Lawrence Kuhn October 25, 2O17 HOST: We're going to put a question to Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who's a long-time advisor to the Chinese government. Robert, great to see you again. You were with us at the very beginning of the Party Congress and you were at the Congress today when it finished. Did you have any vision, any inkling that President Xi Jinping would take on so much authority? Also, what about the fact that there is no successor candidates among the new leaders? RLK: I was interviewed in early 2012 by a well-known American television network and the question put to me, in January of that year, was, "isn't Xi Jinping going to be a very weak leader because he was not appointed by Deng Xiaoping and he has no strong base of support?" DOB WC,RED NEWS DRK TESLA SOLAR POWER ARRIVES IN PUERTO RI 1 EFTA00800280 CNN International Xi Jinping and the New Politburo Standing Committee Robert Lawrence Kuhn - October 26, 2017 HOST: The author of How China's Leaders Think: The Inside Story of Past, Current and Future Leaders, Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a longtime advisor to the Chinese government. He comes to us once again from Beijing. We talked this time yesterday. Good to have you back. And we discussed yesterday what we would learn about that lineup of the standing committee. It hadn't been revealed at that point that we spoke, but we now know and is it correct to say the most significant thing is no sign of a leader in waiting? RLK: I think the most significant sign is who the people are and how they relate to each other. It's a group that actually respects traditional norms. RLK: There was thought that Wang Qishan, for example, might violate norms by being on the Standing Committee after the traditional retirement age and that's not the case. There is balance among the member in terms of their geographies, even their political affiliations within the party which internally are important. Two are from Shanghai, two are from the Communist Youth League - one is actually from Shanghai and the Youth League as well but he's really from Shanghai - two have a long relationship with General Secretary Xi. And then of course General Secretary Xi has the overarching power as everyone says - and that is correct and will be correct for a long time to come. I I CHINA'S NEW POWER PLAYERS EFTA00800281 BREAKING NEWS CCTV/CG TN II 12:07 PM I M P dipl. 411 CHINA NAMES NEW SEVEN-MEMBER LEADERSHIP COMMITTEE a :C'S 42 CHINA'S COMMUNIST PARTY ALREADY ELEVATED STATURE OF PRESIDENT XI JINPING I. • EFTA00800282 Bee h. Cum A DAILY Tuesday. (nary 23.2018 C VISION CHINA Observers offer fresh insight for new era Intellectual hails progress made in past while warning of challenges that lie ahead By IaYANG Robert Lawrence Kuhn has many titles. ranging from investment banker to anatomy researcher. But he is better known in China as a spe- cialist who knows the country inside out. Over the past 29 years, he has visited almost every provincial region and spoken with people from all walls of life. including some who have gone on to become State lead- lth been a great gift to my life to be able to learn so much about Ctd- nah rich civilization. political theo- ries and the whole development" he said. Kuhn. who is from the United States. learns as an outsider but communicates as an insider. In his talk show Closer to [lino with R.L. Kuhn on the China Global Televi- sion Network he presents China's complex story to the world through candid, intimate discussions with the country's decision-makers. In a hotel suite in WangfujIng. downtown Beijing. one busy lunch- time last week. Kuhn shared his thoughts on Chinese politics with China Daily. between exercising and a meeting of the Communist Party of Chink which he had been invited to attend as an observer. He spoke passionately about the 19th CPC National Congress. which was held In Beijing in October. describing It as "a milestone con- gress that set the agenda for more than 30 )ears". The Party proposed two new con- cepts at the congress —'a new era of socialism with Chinese charac- teristics" and Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Charac- teristics for a New Era. which has been written into the Party Consti- tution. 1b understand China today. it is critical to appreciate what the new era means.... I like to understand new era in two categories: its char- acteristics at home and abroad. and its timeline' Kuhn said. He has obviously developed his own way of explaining terms with Chinese characteristics. That is to break down the characteristics, domestically and internationally. rather than delve into the tens. He listed a number of challenges in China's new era from pollution to medical tare. among which he said the biggest is the rising expectations of the people at home. because"now that the people have some, they want more': The complex international envi- ronment S the main characteristic of the new era as the world is frag- mented by diverse problems and challenges he said. While explaining what he called the timeline of the new era (2017. 2021. 2049) and expounding his understanding of XI Jinping G6 I like to understand new era in two catego- ries: its characteristics at home and abroad, and its timeline' Robert Lawrence Kuhn, investment banker and anatomy researcher Q&A I ROBERT LAWRENCE KUHN You hold multiple titles now How have you managed to master so many different fields? Do they have any in common? There's one word to describe the commonality that is"pas- sten". Whatever Redone I want to have passion for it.lb expand that albit it's the pas- sion to learn.. not here to teach. I low to learn. When I write a new book it's some- thing I want to learn about. I use that vehicle to learn. So passion about learning Is the common denominator. China has given me a hugely rich life because of everything I've learned here. Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era — with he broke down into three cat- egories: serve the people. national rejuvenation. and governance mod- erneation — Kuhn showcased his knowledge of the Party's files, which he has clearly learned by heart He recited almost every key point of the 68-page report XI delivered to the congress in Octo- ber. More important, he made con- nections between these points. presenting them in a vivid way. sea- soned with personal experiences and thinking. When asked about the effects of the anti-corruption campaign, he immediately listed 10 objectives. That's his style of approaching Chi- nese issues — divergent thinking and a vigilance not to lose sight of the connections between different points. VISION CHINA - Niewpa low Dinkins From left Zhao lenge" head of the international commtnication bureau of the Publkity Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee: Jiang Qtigzhe. Party thief of the University of International Business and Economics: Chita Daily reporter Mow Aloady:Guo Ykimin. vicernirister of the Information Office of the State Coon* speakers Robert Lawrence Kuhn and Liu Xirc Zhou Shuchun. publisher and ecitix.in.thief of Chin Daily: and Zhang _tannin. head of translation aid Oterpretation for the Minntry of Foreign Affairs. pose for a photo at the inaugural %AsianChina event on Monday at UIBE. roi4 yonicow • 0104 war British journalist tells China's story to the world Despite living and working in Chi- na fora dtt-ade.Andtew ',toady's abil- ity to speak Mandarin is still at a basic level. Yet that has not stopped the awardwinningjourrtalist from inter- preting China's story for the world. Moody joined China Daily nine yeas ago and is now a senior corre- spondent. He has written more than 150 cover stories for the paper's Euro- pean Weekly and African %%Wkly. examining a wide range of issues including the Belt and Road Initiative. The jab has provided him with first- hand experience of how China is dewloping as well as the chance to record reactions from the outside world. especially in the West, toward the nation's growth and changes. He was at the Great Hall of the People to hear General Secretary Xi Jinping deliver a report to the 19th National Congress of the Com- munist Party of China in October. when the concept of a 'new era" was first mentioned. "The consensus oldie various peo- ple I spoke to in the hours after the speech was that China's entering a new era could be a momentous turning point in work! histoty.- Moody said. According to his interviews. he said. people believe that a more confi- dent China is striding into a world that it also is helping to shape. Moody has his own understanding of the new era. With 40 wars of reform and opening.up. he said China has reached a point where Aran move on In many ways. such as in foreign policy. global governance and domes- 611 ‘6 The real fun of reporting in China is the closeness to the actual story; the big fascinating story of China merging into the 21st century." Andrew Moody, China Daily senior reporter tic reforms. 'China has reached a new junction and has to move fonnni" The British journalist has written manystorles that explain China tothe rest of the world, and these have brought him many honors. including being named a State High-End Project Foreign Expert. "1 like reporting on China because it's perhaps the 21st century most fascinating story" he said. lbe real fun of reporting in China is the dose- ries to the actual story. the big lase- Broadcaster sees choice and confidence in rising nation YANG V E ANGLI For 20 years. Liu Xin has had a sin- gular goal: to build a bridge of under- standing between China and the outside world. The television presenter began working for China Central TV. the State broadcaster. in 199t two years after becoming the first Chinese to take part in — and win — the Interna- tional Public Speaking Competition. Early last year. her desire to share China's story received a major boos when she was chosen to host The Point, a prime-time discussion show that airs weekdaos on the China Glob- al 'Nelda!, Network. She said that China entering a new era mewls three things: opportunities. challenges and responsibilities. 'My winning speech in that 1995 national competition was about cboice:' she said. "After IS years of reform and opening-up. we Chinese now enjoy an abundance of choice in our daily byes." After listening to General Secretary XJ Jinping's report at the opening of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Liu said she was impressed with his use of the word 'confidence. It's the confidence China has devel- oped through knowing that our sys- tem works. The confidence about who we are as a people. as a culturePaulith the confidence about our future role in the world:' she said. As media workers. we believe we have a great story to tell. In the past. people relied on a few correspondents or experts for information and opin- ions on China. But more people are tuning in to Chinese media for infor- mation both traditional platforms such as1V and online." As more questions emerge in the minds of those watching from outside China liu said the opportunities to tell stories from inside the country are growing. However. so too are the chal- lenges- "Because of the Ideological differen- ces between China and the West. Chi- na has always been the subject of Western media criticism. which is often downright bashing based on fidsehoods." she said. Now that China has defied all kinds of predictions of a collapse or econom- ic hard landing. Western obstners are having a hard time explaining the Chi- na phenomenon. she said. adding that the result is an ignoranct-based supe- riority complex mimed with bewilder- ment and iced with jealousy. During her 30-nunute program. Liu conducts the interviews with guest in the studio or via satellite link to get a Chinese perspective on two tOUt rye top- lei that affect people around the world. "I understand the urgency to be more asertive. but I believe we always need to be aware of the danger of put- ting feelings before reason. putting opinions before facts' she said. "Nationalism is my biggest enemy "President Xi has said we need to improve the quality and effect of devel- opment. I believe this also applies to China's international communic-ation. The Chinese people will work hand toward acommunkyofashared future. regardless of bowothers view us- Meanwhile. Liu has ajob todo.lis a journalist our duty is to tell China§ story as it Is, one topic at a time. one show at a time' she added. G6 China has always been the subject of Western media criticism, which is often downright bashing based on falsehoods:' Uu gin. host of The Point on China Global Television Network ANDREW MOODY Hera do you overcome the challenges of showing the real China to the world. especially to those who have biases against China? ) a long-term thing. and 5,01.1 cannot change this over- night. There are negative per- ceptions about China. Ith about engagement. If China has much more interactions with the rest of the world. then people will see China as It actually is. One of the 2015 objectives is to better increase China's soft power. Organize- tions like China Daily can actu- ally playa role in improving China's soft power. But I do think it's a long.term process. and China doesn't need to be toosensitivetoward criticism noting story of China merging into the 21st century. the stories that may- be Western media don't really have the chance to Interview" Mooch sees his task as communi- cating China to agleibel audience, and there are still a number of that need robe done. he said. 9 go back to the UK quite a lot and I still don't think that people are aware of the impact of a much bigger Chinese economy and China's being a more significant player in the world" hesaid I can do is to report and do stream one by one' Q&A I LIU XIN Ma professional journalist. what do you think China's mainstream media could do to better report China to the outside world in such a media transformation age? It's challenging. I think we need to be aware of new tech- nology. And the content is very Important If we're more confi- dent. we can really be more sincere. be more at ease with our problems and our achieve- ments. So let's have a sincere conversation. not shy away from the problems we're fac- ing. That's yaw I say let's tell the China story as it is. It's not 100 percent about achieve- ments. Everyday we see mixed nevis.we have mixed feelings. so let's be factual. let's be sin- cere and let people decide whether they want to watch us or not. This is going to take time. but I think if we follow the right philosophy: the right steps, we're going to make it. What they say Vision Chi- na is the first high. end event organzed by China Daily and UIBE after the No sides launched a partnership. By telling Chna's stores in an objective and rational manner. it aims to help students get to know a real China and an objective wodd. and to under- stand China in the new era. Wang Ranking. president of the Onitersity of lnletnatthnal Business and Econornts Relearned a lot from Vision Chi• na today. What impressed me most is how to eliminate bias against China when telling Chills stories, The three expels shared a comma, cpirion. *hid, is to show a true China and not care too much about comments from theoutside world. The sincerest story is often the most touching one. Zhu Yoe. a seniorstudent majoring m international ixtV. tics fromBefinglnternabonal StudittSINier* It was an interesbng lecture. It was good to understand eerier, aspects atcut China h world be good to have things We this ahead because it's about China. You don't have to captain China to the Chinese people. tutyou need to explain it to the out- side world Nektarlos Palaskas, Sotnee and technologycounselor kY the Swiss embassy Ths eveM was very interesting. Wu invited disbn- guished speakers. andel of them are of global talking and have a resin, about Chita China is bocrn inc. and everycce is interest- ed. I en0yed hearing the speakers' ideas about how China volt te n the future. I cane herewith at open mind. Ratthavcottlathalcualool. first sec:ernof Thai embassy EFTA00800283 Al2 Saturday, March 10, 2018 South China Morning Post • INSIGHT CONTACT US Agreed disagree with the nloos on this page? Write to us at II you have an idea for an inion article. email it to Power with purpose Robert Lawrence Kuhn explains why abolishing presidential term limits may well be good for China o interview delegates and officials at the annual National Peo- ple's Congress in Bei- jing, interspersed with being interviewed in the interna- tional media about China abol- ishing term limits for its president. isto inhabit parallel universes. Dekgates and officials focus on clustersof issues from control- ling financial risk and reducing pollution to scientific innovation and business stimulation. plus enhancing and institutionalising China's anti-corruption cam- paign with a powerful National Supervision Commission. The international media. no surprise. focus on the constitutional amendment ending term limits. assuming President Xifinpingwill now serve in a for-life dictator- ship. reminiscent of Mao's China. the Soviet Union. the Kim family in North Korea and some African countries. It is no challenge to explain wily abolishing term limits is bad for China - dependency on one human being who is not omni- scient but is hostage to fortune. fewer and weaker checks and balances. forced conformity in a complex society with no easy an- swers. etc. The system begins stronger in that hard choices can be made and consistency main- tained. but it could become brittle in that officials are more wary and may say things they do not believe. It isa challenge toexplain why abolishing term limits isgood for China. so that'swhat I willdo. First. somebackmund.There are three separate issues being conflated: the significance of end- ing tem, limits. the intended con- sequences and the unintended consequences. Though terminat- ing the two-term limit for China's presidency captures headlines. it is more the symbolic. final step rati4ingXi's near-absolute power than the big breakthrough itself. Many expect this experiment to end badly for China. It is indeed an experiment but its end is not set Xi's prior designation as 'core' of the Communist Parry in October 2016 and the inscribing of "Xi firming Thought..." into the party constitution in October 2017 were moremeaninidul. Moreover. the Politburo StandingCommittee. the highest authoritative body in China. unambiguously supports Xi. Ilinawatcherssee the front page of People's Daily- published the day after the newStanding Com- mince marched out on stage - which featured Xi's photo on top. many times larger than the small- er. subservient photo of all seven members lined up on thebottom. All this reconfirms that. in a system where the party controls the state - especially where the party isMarxist and ideology is its basis for being - Xi. as core of the party. with his name inscribed in the constitutions of party and state as the contemporary arbiter of Marxism.will be theun contest- ed. overarching leader of China for the rest of his sentient life. For intended consequences. theofficiallineis that the purpose is national cohesion brought at m% when the three top leader- ship positions - general secretary of Ile party. chairman of theCen- tral Military Commission and president of the republic - are aligned temporally and held bya singleperson. This makes sense. but as a primam proximalmotivation.it is not entirely persuasive. The current structure has existed for decades without outcry or angst (not to mention that the three po- sitionscould be unified by install- ing term limitson the other two). Thenewera". markedby ea). nomic. social and global com- plexities. is said to require firm and consistent leadership. mak- ing moot inner party struggles and even mitigating 'wildcat gin- sip. facilitating focus on the tat of governance and development. Specifically. because advancing reform hasbecomernoredifficult. with entrenched interest groups resisting change. the message must now go forth that all must get with the programme. because you can't outwit or outwait Xi. Because. it is said that only Xi has the vision. experience. com- petence and character to bring about "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people'. especially from 2020 to 2035 and ultimately to 2050 - bringing China to global centre stage - Xi's unimpeded leadership is deemed essential. China cannot afford "downtime" to accommodate a change of leadership, and after Xi's success at the 19th National Party Con- gess came the time to makeckar that he will call the shots for the foreseeable future. Some argue that doing away with tennlimitsshows thesuperi- ority of the Chinese system as it allows flexibility in matching leadership to requirements (though what national leader. when extendinghis reach. has not claimed -current requirements" as justification?). The party-run Global Times stated that ending term limits doesnot meanChinahasrevened to president-for-life tenure. (But who can deny that however long Xi holds the top positions seems largely up to him?) As for the unintended conse- quences. the almost unanimous. disparaging foreign reaction - other than US President Donald Trump's-didnot bumishaina's international image. More worrisome would be a reluctance by officials to offer constructive opposing views on central 'wham. By stressing term limits. the international media misses fundamental changes going on in China - this year. innovation. streamlining of government. faci- litation of business (cutting bureaucracy and reducing taxes). rural revitalisation and rural land reform. The 13th National Peo- ple's Congress shows how the grand vision and mission of the 19th National Party Congress is translated into specific stratifies and policies. If one sees only term limits.onecannot visualise thebig picture. As for Xi maintaining the presi- dencyperpetually.ft doesn't actu- ally matter much -this is thedeep insight of how China's party-state system works. Xi as core of the party and -Xi linping Thought.? astheparty's (and now the state's) guiding principle means that Xi can transfer titular party leader- ship and/or the presidency tooth- ers and still maintain his overarching power. It may well he that. after serving two or even three more terms. rather than try- ing to find and install another leader like himself. hewill minima bring about truedemacracy with- in the party. Here's thebest case.Xi will not be leader-for-life. but leader long enough to bring about China's national rejuvenation and estab- lisha Chinese kind of democratic norms. Could Xi continue until around2035.wiwnChina pknsto have basically" achieved fullmo- demisation. heading towards. by mid-century. 2050. a -great mod- emsocialist country"? Many expect this experiment to end badly for China. It is indeed an experiment but its end is not set. It may be a race between achieving Xi's grand vision and some untoward perturbation that could cause fracture. All factorsconsidered. am not saying abolishing term limits is absolutely good for China. I am saying it may be good- because of China's special conditions and Vsspecialcapabilities -but if it is good. it'sjust forthisonce. and it's just for so long. 'that's the best casearooting for Xi. Robert tanrenceKuhnisa pubic intellectual. international corporate strategist and investment banker. and China expert/commentata. Heisthe author of liowthina'sLeadersThink What the Western belt and road sceptics are missing Wenshan Jia says there are opportunities for the whole world to benefit from China's initiative hina's-Belt and Road Initiative"is an original plan to carryout a new- type of "collaborativeglobalisation" alxwe and beyond US-led type. It was proposed fiveyears ago byPresident Xi firming after the tapering off& US-led globalisation in 2008. Xi offered three principles:mutual consultation. joint construction and shared benelits.China hassincethen fully executed 101 ageements with 86 countries. and total investment in the 24 countries along the belt and mad regions hasamounted to US$50 billion. resulting in 75 industrialand trade zones, and 200.000jobs. With its focuson infrastructure. the initiative isa model not only for devekming countries. but also industrialised ones in Europe and North America. where ageing infrastructure needs replacing. It also adapts to each local.national or atonal condition situation and need. It is proving verydemocratic. more so than the lopsided US-led globalisation that spurred a populist. isolationist backlash across the Western world. Chinahas done a proper job of explaining to the West what the initiative is and extended a sincere invitation to each country to join. Many think tank scholars and major media outlets in the West have found it potentiallylucrativeand expressed relatively strong suppon. Yet. instead of appreciating China's efforts to both inherit the liberal agenda of globalisation and forgea new path for global development. many Western political elite, led by the US. havestarted a campaign to resist the initiative. From Australia to the US.and the UK to Germany.therearecalls for theWest tocut interactions withChina to min'uniseor resist itsso-called -sharp power". The lahelstypicallyapplied to China include "authoritarian" and -predatory". citing Beijing for not upholding-freedom. democracyand individual rights". thecore values of the` West. Ihisanitudetowardsthe initiative reveals not only a contradiction in the Western mind. but also the narrowing or even dosing of minds. Isn't it beneficial to meet the goals of forging connectivity andcoopemtion. as articulated in Xi's effort to enrichand expand the meaning of the-free world" by liberating humankind fromgeographical. financial. political and cultural barriers? Ihe world is no longer the West versus the rest. as we already live in a world connected by the intemet. The initiative seeks to make the worts more interconnected for both the West and the rest. contributing to the construction of a humancommunitywith a shared future. Recently.the initiative hasinspired and spawned a pushfor localisation. particularly the Indo-Pacificstrategyled by theso-called "Quad" of the US. India. Japan and Australia. Some Western media view it as a rival oraltemative to China's belt and road. But 1 would argue that it can be part of China's initiativeas long as the three Chinese principles (mutual consultation. The anti-China smear campaign must be replaced by a discourse involving consultation and communication joint construction and shared benefits) are observed in the Quad strategy. The belt and road wascreated to be anall-indusive platform. so Beijing hasty) need to fear localisation as long as such strategiesdo not seek tocontain Gallia or disrupt its plan. It would be wise for the Quad and thina to look for ways to collaborate. Quad countries need not take an antagonistic stancetowardsChina: the anti-China smearcampaip must be replaced bya discourse involving consultation and communication.The world has experienced more than enough damagingtalk. not to mention wars. The coreprinciplesof Xi's belt and road strategy must beidvraysapplied in China's interactions with local strategies. If (him is.as German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told the Munich Security Conference in February. "the only country in the world with any sort of genuinely global. geostrategic concept'. then Western leaders should cultivate a genuinelyglobal strategy in line with Mina's vision, for thebetterment of all humankind. Wenshan lia. PhD. is a professor in the School of Communication. at Chapman University (California) and a research fellow at the National Academy of Development andStrategy. Renmin Bniversityol China Private clubs deserve `cushy' rental deals Edith Terry says private recreational clubs are part of Hong Kong's heritage and have contributed to nurturing less popular sports, as well as a unique hybrid culture I n 1964. a young German. fresh off the plane at his first job.went in search of asocialgoup.11efound a home away from home in Hong Kong'soldest private recreational club. newlyrelocated from a prime locationonVictoria Ilartmur.whereCityllall is today. to a modest flagstone boathouse beneath Island Road on Hong Kong's south side. Filly-fiwyears later. Frank Pfeiffer.a Zen Buddhist and mountainclimberis still anactivemember of the Victoria Recreation Club. established in 1849.11e has watched it ring the changes from Hong Kong'scolonial society in the 1960s. when it had only two Chinese membersandnofemale members. to the hybrid institution it is today. under its first Hong Kong (linesechaimmn. Wu Kam Shing. Itsmembership isa spectrum of liongKong's diverse and athletically minded middle class.There is the Hong Kong Chinese court reporter who visits the club in Deep Water Bay every morning at gam on her way from homein Ap Lei Chau to herworkplace in Sha Tin There are her fellow swimmers. many elderly. who swim out to the buoys. rain orshine. hot orcold. every clay.Some 100.150 "paddlers" use theclubas a base for outritfer canoeing, dragon boating and paddle boarding. Some of the sports were unknown to Hong Kong before the club nurtured them. others. like dragon boating. are deeply traditional. In thecurrent debateover the future of the 67 private recreational clubs that pay minimal rents to the government. history hasbeen swept aside. True.they weredesigned on a colonial template. in whichthe diverseethnic groups weregven separateretreats. Membershipat thepinnacleclubs was reserved primarily for the British. Forother ethnic gaups. there was a Chinese Recreation (3ub.a Cub de Recreio.a Filipino Club.an Indian Recreation Club. and soon. Hong Kong'scolonial rulers reviewed thelease system for the private clubs in 1968 and 1979.and in the run-up to tlw handover in 1997 whenleases were restricted to 15-year terms. At the handover.anumber . of leaseswereextended to ensurea so-called smooth transitionThesceptic would argue that this wasa dodge. and indeed. in 2011. during the first post-1997 review of privaterecreationalleasea by the legislative Council. most of theclubs seemedobliviousto public concerns as wellasnew requirements for"opening up" IP The government argued that subsidies were needed because use of land for sports and recreation would never trump commercial utilisation toschoolsand community organisations. Following the last well-publicised review in 2013 and the current investigation seeking new venuesfor public housing, they arenolonger complacent. Should the private dubs have got their cushy rental deals in the first place?At the time of the reviews 50 years ago.the government argued that subsidieswere needed becauseuseof land for spot-Band recreation would never trump commercial utilisation. What was truethen is even moresotoday.lhe highcost of land in Hong Kong isa dragon innovation and creativity:the existence of the private recreational clubs means it has been lessof a drag onsports. Most of the clubs with government leases are framed around core sports-golf. tennis. horse racing. swimming. sailing and rowing. to namea few. Hong Kong athletes whosedevelopment wassupponed by theseclubs have gone to theOlympicsand other intemationalcompetitions. In the 1940s. the Victoria Recreation Club wasthe driving force behind Hong Kong's participation in the International Olympic Committeeand the /long Kong Sports Federation. Public pressure on theclubs to forgecommunity tiesandcontributeto llongKong through 'opening up"schemes isappropriate- but not thepressure to convert theirland to high-riseestatesThe loss is not only to the core spons they represent but also to their uniquel)NA.whichis the foundation of Hong Kong - diverse.cosmopolitanandadventunms. If you want to look for a llongKong that isnot just about morn,. one place to look is here. Edith Terry is the honorary secretary ol the Victoria RecreationClub. She writesina personal capacity Stand-up paddlers partkipate in an event held at the Victoria Recreation Club. Photo: Jonathan Wong EFTA00800284 4 f OA cum.% ours Werrasdow becerriser27.2017 2017 YEAR-END: Politics VIEWS 9 Robert Lawrence Kuhn Watching China's year for history W hen future historians recon- struct the long history of Chi- na they will likely circle 2017 as a year of significance. he seen it all this year. and attended or even participated in the major events. I'vecon- versed with Chinese leaders and experts. and searched for meaning. I didn't appreciate the opportunity Pre had until I began reviewing the year from China's domestic perspective. seeking themes and trends. discerning from what we know about the recent past to what we might forecast about the near-tenn future. It takes no flash of insight to see the leader- ship and vision of President Xi-firming headlining almost every event Following is the review of the meaningful events of 2017. January: Xi began the year with a memo- rable speech at the Vrorld Economic Forum in Davos. Switzerland. mounting a mating defense of globaliza- tion. free trade, and economic openness and Robert Lawrence liberalization. It was the first-ever speech by Chi- na's head of state at Davos and. as commentators the worldover noted with amazement and irony. as the United States under President Donald 'frump was apparently retreating from the world and abrogating global leadership. China under President Xi was apparently defending the international order and pro- moting global governance. March: The annual 'two sessions" of the National People's Congress. China's top leg- islatureand the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference National Commit- tee. the top political advisory body.seemed to radiate store enemy than usual. perhaps in anticipation of the 19th National Con- gress of the Communist Party of China in the fall. A highlight was the adoption of the draft general provisions of civil law, a step closer to a long-needed unified civil code. I sensed delegates' growing confidence and assertiveness to represent their particu- lar sectors in the competitive marketplace of public ideas and government funding, a competition that is vital for the develop- mon of China's kind of consultative democ- racy. This was especially true of the CPPCC National Committee. whose members are often leading experts in their fields such that even though they do not have legal authority to pass laws. they have moral authority to exert pressure and affect change. It did not escape notice that. throughout the "two sessions: Xi was recog- nized repeatedly as "core" of the CPC Cen- tral Committee and of the whole Party Kuhn Belt and Road to the fore May:The first-Belt and Road Summit" (the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation). held in Beijing was the diplo- matic highlight of the year in China. Some L10 countries participated. including 29 heads of state and government. the goal was no less than the transformation of the economic structure of the developing world: building infrastructure and connec- tivity. stimulating development. alleviating poverty reducing severe imbalances. pro- moting South-South cooperation and revi- talizing globalization. Xi called the Belt and Road Initiative 'the project of the century: Jab% China celebrated the 20th anniver- sary of Hong Kong's return to the mother- land. It was a time of reflection for the cosmopolitan city long a global leader in economic freedom and competitiveness. Hong Kong had flourished: its way of life preserved. its economy dynamic. But times change. With Shanghai and Shenthen on the rise. and with some claiming the 'one country. two systems" principle is in decline. Hong Kong faces new challenges. August The People's Liberation Army celebrated its 90th anniversary: In a move both practical and symbolic, the PIA estab- lished its first overseas logistics base in Dji- bouti. situated strategically on the Horn of Africa Xi Jinping.whci is also chairman of the Central Military Commission. said the PIA is becoming 'strong" infonnationized armed forces.'The Chinese people love peace' Xi said-We orill never seek aggres- sion or expansion but... No one should expect us to swallow the bitter fruit that is harmful to our sovereignty security or development interests': Foreigners are wondering: what is the Plies long-term plan for operating over- seas? What will be the impact of the PLM modernization and reform especially its burgeoning blue-water navy with multiple aircraft carriers? August China hosted the BRICS Sum- mit in Xiamen, East China§ Fujian prov- ince. The five BRICS countries — Brazil. Russia. India.China and South Africa — have increasing influence on global econo- my and politics. but does BRIGS as an orga- nization make sense? China certainly thinks so. and promoted the BRICS Summit as representing a new kind of multilateral global governance. There are complexities: political instabilities in Brazil and South Africa: the growing. comprehensive cooper- ation between Russia and China; the sen- sitive. multifaceted relationship between India and China. Throughout the year, events on the Korean Peninsula continued to intrude. While China continued to call for denuelearization and dia- logue. just hours before Xi gave the opening speech at the BRIGS Summit. the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea detonated its most powerful nuclear bomb ever. 19th Party Congress and the New Era October: 'Ibe highlight of the year was. as expected. the 19th CPC National Congress. Not quite expected were the far-reaching proclamations and• taken together. the magnitude of their significance. I witnessed history and see six high- lights. First Xi's name and thought were writ- ten into the CPCConstitution —"Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Charac- terigics fora New Fla': Xi is now. officially the overarching creator and arbiter of polit- ical thought. and combined with his desig- nation as -core" of the CPC. he is now the undisputed. unimpeded leader with singu- lar authority Xi Jinping 'thought' is built on the twin pillars of people orientation and national rejuvenation, with the new con- cept of development (innovation. coordina- tion. green. open. sharing) driving a new kind of economic growth. Second. the "New En': which is intended ass policy-energizing game changer. is a conceptual lens with which to view the range of goals. strategies and concepts that compose Xis way of thinking and the Par- tys new direction. The 'New Era" is envisioned in three tem- PetalSegments: (i) from now until the ful- fillment of China's first centenary goal of a "moderately prosperous society' in 2020 (2021 being the 100th anniversary of the CPC): 00 from 2020 to 2035. when the CPC states it will build on the foundation of the moderately prosperous society so that. after "15 years of hard work". the country will 'basically' realize 'socialist modernization": and (iii) from 2035 to 2050. when the CPC states it will 'work hard fora further 15 years' and *develop China into a country that is prosperous. strong.democratic.cul- turally advanced, harmonious, and beauti- ful': Realizing this vision at mid-century. around Vi50. with China being respected as a great. modern. socialist country. is the sec and centenary goal (2049 being the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of Ctd- na). Third, the new -principal contradiction" in China's"New Era' is benwen "unbal- anced and inadequate development" and "the people's ever-growing needs for a bet- ter life". which includes increasingly broad demands fordemocracy. rule of law, fair- ness and justice, security and a better envi- ronment" Flom now on, this newera principal contradiction. replacing quantita- tiveGDPgrowth with qualitative improve- ment of life, is what will guide China's domestic affairs and policies. Fourth, the Party's leadership role in gov- erning the country is expanding and the Party's stringent approach to governing itself is intensifying. The Party will be more deeply embedded within agencies of gov- ernment and sectors of society (including private companies, foreign businesses and educational institutions), and by reforming and purifying itself. the Party's governance will be stricter and more comprehensive. The anti-corruption campaign, not only continues it has been enhanced. Fifth, the-New Era" has China moving closer to center stage of the world and mak- ing greater contributions to humanity. offering 'Chinese wisdom" and "Chinese solutions" for world problems. China's diplomacy will be proactive, championing the development of a community with a shared future for humanity and encourag- ing the evolution of the global governance system. Sixth, I watched the new senior leaders of China the seven members of the new Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, walk out on stage ending months. really years. of specu- lation and rumor. Because everything in China reports to a Political Bureau Standing Committee member. and because of the Party's principle of collective leadership. their personalities. composition and bal- ance determine the vision. strategies and policies that shape China. The importance of the Political Bureau Standing Committee remains true today. but its importance frankly is also less true today It is hard to overstate the conse- quences of Xis name written into the Party Constitution. thus inscribing into perpetu- ity his predominant status and assuring his continuing preeminence in the coun. try's political life. Following the I9th Party Congress. some might have expected a respite. a slower November and December. They were any- thing but Form is substance November The "state vint-plus" of US President Donald Thump came at a delicate moment. Amid pomp and pageantry, including a personal tour of the Palace Museum (Forbidden City). $253 billion in business deals were signed a world record though critics complained it was all trans- actional, nothing structuraL The number. some said• was more form than substance. but here. perhaps. form was substance. Both Xi and 'hump hailed the visit as "suc- mato! and historic". Yet on sensitive topics, one could be for- given for seeing sunlight between their positions. On trade. Xi lauded the business deals and market access. -which will deliver great benefits for the two peoples': 'Dump sought improved trade with China based on "a level playing field for our workers' and solving the -massive trade distortion' — which cluiracteristically Trump blamed on past US administrations, not on China. On the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Xi reiterated China's firm commit- ment for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and direct communications. while 'Dump said that they "agreed not to replicate failed approaches of the past" and he called for "increased economic pressure until North Korea abandons its reckless and dangerous path': Subsequent to Thump's visit. China announced revised regulations that were indeed structural. China will reduce or eliminate (over time) limits on foreign ownership of financial services sectors. including insurance. commercial banking securities, futures, and asset manage- ment Significantly the State Council. China Cabinet established a Financial Stability and Dewlopment Committee to oversee financial stability and boost risk prevention (including close monitoring or:shadow banking' and corporate debt). This new supra-ministry commission will be empow- end to make decisions related to reform and development. coordinate issues con- cerning monetary policy and establish financial policies and related fiscal and industrial policies, thus improving the financial regulatory system. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting in Vietnam. Xi strength- ened his themes of making economic glo- balization more open. balanced and inclusive: lauded regional multilateralign for promoting common interegs: and stressed the Belt and Road Initiative for advancing global connectivity. What struck me in Xi's speech was what he inserted about poverty: lb lift all the sraW /CIINA DAILY remaining poor people out of poverty is a solemn commitment made by the Chinese government to the people. It is uppermost in my mind and I have spent more energy on poverty alleviation than on anything else." "Upper most in my mind?""blore energy on poverty alleviation than on anything else?"Ari extraordinary statement from the president! Although Xi has been making highprofile visits to numerous poor coun- ties and villages. relentlessly championing "targeted poverty alleviation" for realizing the -moderately prosperous society'. this was his clearest statement that poverty alle- viation is hb highest priority. Main contradiction reinforced Two unpleasant events in Beijing rein- forced the new 'principal contradiction': highlighting 'the people's ever-growing needs for a better life" as that surprisingly powerful lens for viewing Chinese society. The fiat was alleged child abuse at a kin- demarten.The second was a fire in which L9 migrant workers died. In both cases. net- bens reacted with anger: in the alleged child abuse. anger about a perceived cover- up: in the fire. anger for the disorderly and inconsiderate way of evacuating migrant workers. When Xi first announced the new princi- pal contradiction at the 19th Party Con- gress. some dismissed it as arcane Party speak Public reaction to the alleged child abuse and to the fire revealed its prescient and perspicacious wisdom. The second volume of Xi Awing: The (internam. of China. a collection of 99 of Xi's speeches. conversations. Instructions and letters, was published. The book offers a resource to follow the development of XI's ways of thinking and ideas and to under- stand China's new guiding philosophy and the specific elements that compose it. The month ended with what may seem a light touch when Xi called for China to upgrade its toilets. Toilets among the year's highlights? Xi rots serious and his point is probative. For China to become a more civi- lized society, the hygiene of the people must be improved (especially in rural areas). and for China's tourism industry to blossom. better bathrooms are needed. Although China's leader talking toilets elicits smiles, and some say it downgrades his dignity, it demonstrates. above all. Xi's intrinsic com- mitment to improve the quality of life for the Chinese people. December. In the first nine days tithe month. Xi engaged with four international events.stressing common commitment to build a community of a shared future for all humanity The four engagements To the "CPC in Dialogue with World Polit- ical Parties High-Level Meeting. Xi described four views &the future: a world that is safe and free of fear: prosperous and free of poverty: open inclusive and free of isolation: and environmentally clean and beautiful. At the 'Fourth World Internet Confer- ence Xi asserted how the Internet posed new challenges for sovereignty, security and development. At the '2017 Fortune Global Forum' Xi called for openness and innovation to enhance global economic growth. pledging toliberalize and facilitate trade and foreign investment in China. And at the 'South-South Human Rights Forum'. Xi emphasized Mat liuman rights must and can only be promoted in light of specific national conditions and peoples needs". The CPC's Dialogue with World Political Parties was path-setting in that it put the world on notice that a transformed CPC under Xi is reaching out globally with pride and confidence — explaining especially to developing countries. the developmental benefits of party leadership and party build- ing. The point of debate. as it were. has shifted front whether the China model of a perpetually ruling party (with all that entails) is good for China to how theChina model is good for other countries. At a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Xi directed author- ities to improve digital infrastructure. pro- mote the integration and sharing of digital resources. and protect data security: in order to better serve the nation's economic and social development as well as to improve people's lives. The big vision is to turnChina into a world leader in big data and a global innovation hub for artificial intelligence by 2030. The last major event of the year was the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which identified "three tough battles" for the next three years: preventing and defus- ing risks (especially financial risks), elimi- nating absolute poverty (China's 2020 goal). and curbing pollution (for instance. encour- aging investment in environmental pro- jects). Setting three-year targets was itself an innovation (over the traditional one-year targets). thereby strengthening long.tenn thinking, reducing pressures to make hasty decisions. and giving markets stable expec- tations. The priority of reducing absolute debt was modified to controlling a rise in bor- rowing, suds that China's debt-to-GDP ratio does not further deteriorate. This signaled that growth would not be jeopardized and (to the disappointment of some) debt-driv- en growth wouldcontinue. 'lb contain financial risk, China will crackdmvn on irregular and illegal activities in its chaotic financial industry and intensi- fy regulatory scrutiny: continue supply-side structural reform (reducing overcapacities): and maintain a proactive fiscal policy a prudent and neutral monetary policy and a basically stable yuan exchange rate. Resisting arguments for shrinking State- owned enterprises, China will make SOFs 'stronger.better and bigger': and the gov- ernment will seek efficiencies by becoming more of an investor and less of an operator. China pledged to open up its markets fur- ther and to balance trade by boosting imports (US pressures. expressed vividly by 'frump. were not mentioned). Theoretical foundation After five years of "practice: the theoreti- cal foundation of China's economic devel- opment is now labeled."Xi linping Thought on Socialist Economy with Chi- nese Characteristics for a New Era': paral- leling the phrase added to the Party Constitution two months earlier. The "thought' is based mainly on Xi's new con- cept of development — innovative. ccordi- nated. green. open and shared development — which has been the core of his economic philosophy. For the first time at this annual confer- ence. topics other than economics were on the agenda. Diverse public concerns were addressed. such as buidensome homework for schookbildren sex discrimination in the workplace. andonline scams. ThisV(28a clear consequence of how China's new "principal contradiction" in the "New Era" now drives domestic policy as Chinese citi- zens seek a 'better life': the government must respond lb pick one message to characterize the year: it is this. In 2017. under the leadership of Xi. China set the trajectory. in all vital areas, of the country2 domestic develop- ment and international engagement for the next 30-plus years, to mid-century to 2050. Every year brings challenges. For China, no doubt. big ones lie ahead. In 2018. China wN celebrate the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up. The world is watching. The author is a public bueilechaal, buerna- donut norpomte wares& and investment banker, and China elven/commentator. He Is co-ttrator (with Adam NW and host of CCM it Closer toChina with ES Kuhn and "The ;Value" commentaries. EFTA00800285 October 28-29,2017 5 COMMIAT Robert Lawrence Kuhn OPINION 4 tt • 4: ChbuDallv New era on the road to 2050 / winiessed history sitting in the Great Hall of the People during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of Chinni listened raptly to Xi Unpins. general secretary of the CPC Central Committee. when he delivered his new-era-defining report I heard the amendment to the Party Constitution that enshrined "Xi Juiping Thought on Social- ism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era". I watched numbers of the new Stand- ing Committee of the Political Bureau o(the CPC Central Committee walk out on stage. I was awed by the presence of the leadership. past and present. And I was overawed by Xi's grand vision (or China and the counuys increasing. radiating confidence. Most of alL I marveled at the remarkable and historic transformation of China which means so much to the Chinese people and which in this new era will mean so much to the rest of the world. Having departed the Great Hall of the People. I reflected how I. an American. found myself caught up in the welling Chi- nese patriotism of the 19tti CPC National Congress. Certainly. I was experiencing first- hand this inflection point In Chinese histo- ry. when China envisions itself becoming a fully modernized country and taking pro- active part in international affairs. and regaining its leading seat at the high table of great nations. What have I just witnessed? Following are some personal observations. A general consensus describes (our pri- mary outcomes Mthe 19th Party Congress: Xi Inning Thought on Socialism with Chi- meCharacteristics for a New Era; a new "contradiction' that defines Chinas princi- pal social challenge: a China that talces"cen- ter stage in the world"; and the Party enhancing its leadership of society. includ- ing maintaining, indeed intensifying. its anti-corruption campaign. lb me. however: a highlight was the sped ficityof Xlk vision of China. not ordyeaaff fishing policies teethe next five years. but also framing the agenda and setting the strategies (or the next 30 years.This congress. /a said. is the 'tonfluence" of the "inn Centenary Goals': a moderately prosperous sodetyby 2020(2021being the 100th anniversary of the CPC). which will likely be fulfilled within the term of the 19th ParrvCongress anda great. modern socialist country by 2030 (2049 being the100th anniversary of the Peo- ple's Republic of China). which is being planned by the 19th Parry Congress. In a multi-meaning refinement the path to rind-century is nowdesivwd in two sta- ges. In the first stage. from 20.M to 2015. the Party states it will build on the foundation of the moderately prosperous society such that after -15 years of hard work" the country will basically realize 'socialist modernization". In the second stage. from 2035 to 2050. the CPC states it will build on a basically achieved modernization' molt hard fora further 15 years" and"develop China into a great mod- em socialist country that is prosperous. strong. democratic. culturally advanced. har- monious. and beautiful': Chun portrays its mid-century self as a glohil leader in every area of human consequence: economics and trade. science and Ethnology. military and defense. culture and gowniance. But Chinese leadem and otlicia/s in genet- al, seem to have a different highlight While theRvo Centenary Goals" are certainlyvitaL espedallywith new stages and specificity. they focus on the anion iment to the PartvConsti- cation "Xi linpinglbought on Socialism with Chinese CharacteristiCS for a New Em". `the (Xi k) thought is the biggest high- light of the 19th National Congress of the CPC and a historiccontribution to the Par- tys development: said 7lung Defiance the third-ranking member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the lath CPC Central Committee. Liu Yunshan. the fifth-ranking member. said the elevation of XI's thought to the party's guiding princi- ple is of great political theoretical and prac- tical significance. I take a closer look at Xi's thought: first by examining each of its elements, then by con- sidering its unified significance. 'Xi Jinping" is the -core" of the CPC Cen- tie' Committee and of the whole Party and he thereby at the top level provides the "ten- tralism" of the P•utys cardinal principle of democratic centralbm. The 'Thought' is the totality of Xi's fun- damental principles. I see four broad este- emits: people orientation. national rejuvenation. comprehensive development and Party leadership. In his report Xi listed 1+ categories: Party leadership over all aspects of society: peo- ple-centered policies: deepening reform comprehensively: new concept of develop- ment (innovation. coordination. green. ()Pen and sharing): people as masters Mthe country: adherence to rule of law. compre- hensively governing the country by law: socialist value system and cultural con& dente: protecting and improving peoples livelihoods; harmonious coexistence of man and nature (ecological civilization): national security: the Pany's absolute leadership over the miliuuy: "one daunt:EV.1mo sys- tems" and promoting reunification with ma- wan: international community of a shared future for all humanity: and comprehensive and strict Party governance The term 'Thought in Chinese has special meaning because before this it had been associated only with Mao Zedong — "Mao Zedong Thought: 'socialism's a set of political ideas with a complex history unified by public or com- mon ownership of the means of production and concern for the masses. 'Chinese ehandenstics" is the phrase. originating with Deng Xiaoping that adapts Manism to China's special conditions — the Sinicization of Marxism in modern China — which includes the market playing a decisive role in the allocation of resources and the encouragement of non-public. for-profit busi- nesses. while at the same time state-owned enterprises still playing a dominant role. "New Era" is a new idea in the constitu- tional amendment. and it is designed to profoundly transform the essence of social- ism with Chinese characteristics into the vision, concepts and strategies that com- pose Xik way of thinking. The more I reflect. the more I see "New Era" as a conceptual lens with which to view the 19th Party Congrers.Semi-ofkial Party analysts say the new era answers five ques- tions- ZilAil HAWN a rot CMPO. ONLY 1Vharroad" to take? Socialism with Chi- nese characteristics under new historical conditions. What kind of country to build? EWA a moderately prosperous society and then a modernized socialist country. What development to realize? Better life and common prosperity for all What goal to achieveThe great rejuvena- tion of the Chinese nation. What contribution to make? Facilitate world peace and prosperity (exemplified by the Belt and Road Initiative of building infrastructure in developing countries). Thus. Xi -firming joins only Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping in having his name affixed to a political philosophy in the Party Constitution a blazing sign lost on no one. It then would follow that the 'New Era" into which China is now entering is the third era of the CPC and by extension of the People's Republic of China. A seemingly subtle but significant change is the Parry's judgment of what con- stitutes the fundamental -contradiction" in Chinese society: (TonUadiction" is a Mane ist term expressing a panicularw-ay of political thinking — dialectical materialism — which identifies 'dynamic opposing for- ces" in society and seeks to resolve the resulting tensions). The principal contradiction has evolved from one between the ever-growing materi- al and cultural needs of the people and backward social production to that between 'unbalanced and inadequate development and the people's ever-growing needs fora better life.' Xi said. 'Pte needs for the people to live a better life are increasingly broad and have to be met. Not only have their material and cultural needs grown: their demands for democracy. rule of law fairness and justice. security and a better environ- ment are increasing. This "New-Era" contradiction. replacing quantitative GDP growth with qualitative improvement (Cite. Is what will drive Chi- na's policy. The mission of a CPC congress is to review and assess achievements of the previous five years. and to forecast challenges and set tar- gets for the subsequent five years (and beyond). Overall. for the 19th ParrvCongrem the ambition of the goals and the compre- Robert Lawrence Kuhn hensiveness of the cate- gories were clear. amplified by the commit- ment to deepen reform. Ilene. by category: are what stood out. The Party and the fight against corrup- tion. Confidence in socialism and the increasing role of the Party in managing all aspects of the country is unequivocal. and the increasingly strict governance of the Party. by reforming and purifying itself. is unanibignous. Moreover. the anti-corrup- tion campaign not only continues but also will he enhanced. Economy. After more than three decades of rapid growth. Chinas economy has been transitiOningtOsloWer but higher-quality growth. Supply-side structural reform has been written into the Constitution. No GDP growth targets are set. The country focuses on the teal economy(as opposed to specula- tion. such as in the real estate sector). China is not backing away front State-owned enterprises. rather it will support slate capi- tal in "becoming stronger. doing better. and growing bigger. thereby turning Chinese enterprises into world-class, globally com- petitive firms" Consumption is fundamental in driving economic growth.The framework of ngula- bons must be improved prudent macroeco- nomic and monetary policy maintained and interest and exchange rates made more market-hased. For economic development. innovation leads. especially in science and technology. Poverty alleviation. Xi has made the elimination of extreme poverty in China by 2020 a cornerstone of his domestic policy. After all how could China claim to have achieved a moderately prosperous society by 2020 if millions of citizens would be still living in extreme poverty? Opening-up. China reasserts its com- mitment to become more open. including easing market access and protecting the rights and interests &foreign investors. China's economists see foreign competition as upgrading the quality and cost efficiency MChinese companies. thus better serving Chinese consumers. Rule ofErw. Strengthening and institu- tionalizing the rule of law and weakening arbitrary rule of officials. is a priority. Reflecting Xis commitment. the Party is set- ting up a central leading group for advanc- ing law-based governance in all areas. coordinating the activities of judicial organs. The goal is to complete the transfor- mation of China's legal system by 2035 with theoretical foundations and practical enforcement. Ecology. Beautiful China is one of the country's main descriptions for its second centenary goal by the middle of the century. This modernization is characterized by har- monious coexistence between humanity and nature (such as nature parks) and it requires substantial bolstering of regulatory agencies and their enforcement powers. Armed forces. China's goal is to trans- form the People's liberation Army into a world-class military' by mid-tenuity. basical- ly completing military reform and moderni- zation by 20.35. with information technology/mter applications and strategic capabilities prioritized. F.specially significant for Xi's mission are the two "anti's" — anti-corruption and anti- poverty — the former to support the Pany's continuing leadership. the latter as a prime example of what the Party has delivered. Xi does not downplay a realistic appraisal of problems. including social imbalances. industrial overcapacities. financial system risks. endemic pollution. Achieving nation- al rejuvenation will be no walk in the part." Xi said. an example ot his plainspoken can- don "It will take more than drum-beating and gong-clanging to get there? The speculations of China watchers. and the focus °Abe international media, have been on the new Standing Comminee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Commit- tee. Because everything in China reports to a standing committee member. composition and balance determine the vision. strategies and policies that will shape China. This remains true today. but less true today: It is hard tooverstate the signiff canoe of Xi Jinping's name written into the PartyConstitution. Xi is now: officially. the originating designator and overarching arbiter orThought" as it relates to 'Social- ism with Chinese Characteristics fora New En". which is the guiding political theory of China and encompasses. essentially. every- thing in China. For Xi to be named in the CPC Constitution is the ultimate in authori- ty: surpassing even 'core" (which already had superseded all other leaders). thus set- ting into perpetuity Xis predominant sta- tus and assuring his preeminence in the country's political life. That said to knowChina is to know the members of the Standing Conunittee. They are a highly competent. highly experienced group: six of the seven have run provinces or province-level municipalities. many of which in terms of population and GDP. are the equivalent of major nations. "ftaditional norms of balance and age are respected. It's a diverse group — by geom. phy. education and political career. They have worked together. in various combina- tions. for years. With much now' being writ- ten about each member. filing offer sone personal reflections. First of course. is XiJinping. general sec- retary of the CPC Central Committee. whose prior experience included governor of Fuji- an province and Party secretary of Thejiang province and Shanghai. In 2005. I was advised to study the -Zheji- ang model': which promotes entrepreneur- ship to generate economic development. I met XL who was then Zhejiang provincial Party secretary. and he recommended that I study China both 'horizontally" across diverseregions and 'edic-AP through the history of its development. nil understand our dedication to revitalize the country. one hastoappreciatethepride that Chinese people take in our glorious ancient civilization:Xi said;This is the histor- ical driving Pate inspiring people today to buildthe nation. The Chinese people made great contributions toward civilization and enjoyed long-term prnsperity" he said 'Then we suffered overacenturvof national weak- ness, oppression and humiliation. So. we haw a deep self-motivation to build our country. Our commitment and determina- tion Ls rooted in our patriotism and pride:' But he cautioned that pride in China's recent achievements should not engender complacency Second. premier of the State CounciL is Ii Keqiang. who was Party secretary of Hen- an and Liaoning provinces. When I visited Ii in Liaoning. he explained the complex challenges of revitalizing Mate-owned enterprises while creating a fende environ- ment for private businesses. Li shared the sameexperienceof )0 as educated youths in the countryside in the 1970sAlwomerience gave them the chance to know better coral China and the lives of nual people and thus fostered their people-orientation. The following members are new: Ii anitshu. who was governor of !lei- longjiang province and Party secretary of Guizhou province, has been director of the general office of the CPC Central Committee since 2012. Wang Yang. vice premier. is former Fluty secretary of Chongqing municipality and Guangdong province. At the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009. he argued it was imperative to restructure Guangdong'sea:norm: so that it can none up the ladder of industrialization and pro- mote niece knowledge-based. high-tech low- polluting businesses. Nang Hurting, secretariat. is director M the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee. Wang is well known for provid- ing intellectual vision and sophistication in support of practical strategies and policies. ranging from political philosophy to interna- tional relations. Mao Lek. new chairman of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, has served as head of the CPC Organization Department. and before that. as Party secre- tary of Qinghai and Shaanxi provinces. In addition to his responsibilities for tarty and government officials. Zhao provided strong support for the poverty-alleviation mission. Ilan Theng Ls Party secretary of Shanghai. Under his leadership. Shanghai has become a recognized leader in trade. logistics and finance. vAliat is the impact of all this on Chinas international relations? There is no need tospeculate. Xi himself in his report. openly and boldly tellsall who listen. China, he says. 'has become a great power in the world': China's global engagement is proactive. confident and vowing. Economics and trade drive Chinak power. exemplified by' the much-needed Belt and Road Initiative. but diplomacy. the soft power of culture and media and the hard power of a blue-water navy projecting power. are devek)ping ralndlE As Xi said the new era sees "China manna closer to center stage and 'lurking greater contributions to mankind'. Tae country' is now offering 'Chinese wisdom' and 'Chinese solutions' to the international community — the experiences and lessons of Chinak remarkable development. especially to devel- oping countries. Regarding Taiwan which exemplifies Chi- nese sovereignty,. Xi painted a bright redline. "We will resolutely uphold national sover- eignty and territorial integrity and will never tolerate a repeat of the historical tragedy of a divided country: Xi emphasized. 'We have firm will. full confidence. and sufficient capa- bility to defeat any font of taiwan independ- ence secession plot? China has asserted again that it is no threat to any country No matter how power- ful China becomes. China's leaders say it will never scek hegemony or pursue expansion- ism. Nonetheleat some foreigners remain suspicious. waryof Chinak long-tenn ambi- tions. Who knowsfuturecircumstances...they worry? Who knows how China may change? Although I fear self-fulfilling prophecy. lam encouraged that China appreciates such sen- sitivities and works to build confidence. The 19th PartyCongress. especially Xik report is an epic narrative of what China has accomplished, what China has yet to achieve. and what China envisages as necessary tobe a great nation. XL now carries the authority: he also bears the burden. Settin that new target date of 2035 for China to achieve bask modernization. Xi sees China as standing at a new' historic starting point and socialism with Chinese characteristics as exploring new horizons. China has entered a new era and the road ahead leads. apparently. to great nation sta- tus by :Ek70. The author is a public bailer:nal, interna- tional corporate strategist, and China expert/ conunentaror. He is co-creator (tnqh Adorn 72tu) and the host of Mina Global 1devision Nateorks Closer to China with Katsina. CONTACT US China Day 100 News: • “»1064911366; subsaipti C0-69‘10203: navcrusen 6491.8631: Phone app: China Daily USA 1 0Brokoi..rs. Sore 2K0 \belo.NY 10036 41212 537 asei., China Daly Ash Pacific China Daly Hong Kong Room 1818. Het wo. Centre 7 Tn Wan Ri4n. ROW Aberdtel. 14"31(rtg .85225185M China Daily UK GesnonStrecticoclanEC4N6HA •aa '012073988270 China Daly Afriee 27281-00100. Nairobi-11088 •254(01205223498(NarObi) EFTA00800286 fi!. a 4. CHINA DALY werrassay, adorer IS.200 C-70 Five years on VIEWS 11 Robert Lawrence Kuhn Historical starting point for new stage of development T he 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. which begins on October 18. will set the leadership and establish the policies for the next five years. at least. While Party national congresses are always seminal events in the political life of the country. there is reason to expect that this congress will have even greater and longer-reaching impact. The context of the 19th e CPC National Congress S the grand vision for Chi- ., na presented by CPC Central Committee Gen- , eral Secretary XI -tinning. . who is now the "core" of 'the CPC Central Com- Robert mince and of the whole Lawrence Kuhn Party :It is an epic narra- tive of what China has remarkably achieved. what China has yet to do. and what China envisages as necessary to become a great nation. Xi's grand vision is famously expressed as "the Chinese Dream". described as 'the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'. which has personal and national implica- tions. It Ls specified by two overarching goals: the two centenary goals of establish- ing a moderately prosperous society by 2020 — the 100th anniversary of the CPC is 2021 — and establishing China as a "fully modernized. socialist nation" by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of Chi- na in W49. The first goal. which includes the total elimination of extreme poverty in the coun- try will likely be achieved within the five- year term of the 19th CPC National Congress. It is the second goal that is of spe- cial interest at this time, because in drawing the roadmap and formulating the policies to achieve Chinak mid-century goal this Congress may set the agenda for the next 30-plus years. The CPC national congresses are the highest authority dCPC governance and decision-making. The CPC constitutional provision of holding congresses every five )ears was reaffirmed by Deng Xiaoping In the eat!), days of reform (in part to establish order and collective responsibility after a period of chaos and political vicissitudes). and since 1982. Party congresses have been held scrupulously on schedule. The congresses establish the senior lead- ership of the Party and hence the nation by electing the CPC Central Committee. wtdch in turn elects all top Party positions, and also the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection: review and assess the achieve- ments and challenges over the five years since the previous Party Congress: set the vision. goals and objectives. agenda and pri- orities for the subsequent five years: revise the Party constitution (to keep up with the times): and project an image of unified pur- pose and direction to engender national confidence and commitment. The review and assessment dthe previ- ous five years and setting the agenda and priorities for the subsequent five years are fornially presented in the Report delivered by the general secretary representing the outgoing Central Committee and thus reflecting the consensus view of the Party leadership. Ratified by the congress (after minor modifications). it becomes the guid- ing document that drives policy for the incoming Central Committee. On the day following a congress, the first plenum of the new 19th Central Committee S convened to elect the Party's new senior leadership. including the Political Bureau. the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau (to which. in essence. everything in China reports), and the general secretary of the Central Committee. Also approved are the Central Military Commission (which oversees the People's liberation Army). the Secretariat (which runs Party daily opera- tions), and the head of the Central Commis- sion for Discipline Inspection. The planning for the national Party Con- gress follows similar patterns. Beginning more than a year in advance. it involves both formal and informal processes. The formal process includes the election or appointment of about 2.300 delegates (2.2SOdelegates at the 19th National Con- gress) from among the Partys over 89 mil- lion members, at all levels and in all sectors. and the preparation of the Report via an elaborate system of extensive research in targeted areas (involving thousands of experts). solicitation °amid input. drafts (or sections) circulated to numerous Party experts and officials for comments, and iter- ative intense reviews by higher bodies and senior leaders. In addition, smaller groups are assigned the more sensitive tasks of amending the Party constingion and rec- ommending candidates for the newCentral Committee and senior leadership positions. Final decisions for this yeark congress. as well as final edits of the Report, were made at the Seventh Plenum of the 18th CPC Cen- tral Committee. held on Oct 11 to 14, days prior to the opening ceremonyof the 19th CPC National Congress. 'lb understand the position and role of CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi at the19th Party National Congress we should appreciate what it means for Xi to Sill CV / CIIPIA DAILY be the core. It was in October 2016. at the Sixth Plenum of the lath CPC Central Com- mittee. that Xi was designated the 'tore" of the CPC Central Committee and of the entire Party. The appellation WAS an unam- biguous assertion that China requires strong leadership to maintain stability and ensure development given China's unprece- dented.compkx challenges: domestically. slower growth. industrial overcapacity. endemic pollution. unbalanced develop- ment. income disparity. social injustice. social service demands: and internationally regional matt icts. sluggish economies. wile- tile markets. trade protectionism ethnic clashes terrorism. geopolitical [tallies. and territorial disputes. Nloreover. because China must deepen reform to achieve the goal of being a moder- ately prosperous society, the resistance of entrenched interest groups must be over- come. In fact. the necessity of having a lead- ership core to maintain stability and expedite reform was a primary factor relat- ing to Xi's elevation to be the core. In addition, not only does XI have the responsibility for China's transformation: he is also accountable for it ale has shown courage in combating rampant practice of graft bribery and illicit patronage. Xi's relentless anti-corruption campaign is altering how officials in towernment and managers in industry work. and even how they think And let no one assume that Xik battle against corruption has been risk-free. Xi as the core does not change the Partys cardinal principle of "democraticcentral- isd: The Party says it is encouraging the democratic solicitation of input and feed- back from Party members. lower-ranked of cials...and the general public: and strengthening centralism through Xi's core leadership. In a complex world. given the diverse interests and forces in Chinese society the Party asserts that the Chinese Dream can- not be realized without unity. Strong leader- ship is requited to build and maintain unity for China to continue its development. When Xi received the core appellation. he was already general secretary of the Party chairman of the Central Mil itary Commis- sion. and president of the country — the three highest leadership positions in China — so how does being the "core augment his perceived stature or actual power? The 2016 Party plenum communique confirmed that "the collective leadership system... must always be adhered to". Nonetheless. there must have been shifts in terms of both the setting of the agenda and making final decisions — or else making XI the core would have little meaning. When foreigners dismiss the political aphorisms of China's leaders as simplistic sloganeering. they miss an opportunity to enrich their understanding. Chinese offi- cials certainly hold Xi's frameworks in high esteem. Xn thought for the Party, the inner-Party directives. include the"eight regulations" (against waste and perks): "four self-crud- dences"(in the country's development path. The China model, Xi said, successful at home, also broadens the way for developing countries to modernize, thus prosiding Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions for problems facing mankind. theories. systems. culture of socialism with Chinese ctuuucteristics): opposing the"tour evil winds' (formalism. bureaucracy, hedonism. decadence): the "four greats" (struggles. projects, enterprises. dreams). The combined intent is to make Party members. especially Pasty and government officials. more dedieated committed com- petent and loyal. with exemplary moral standards of probity and rectitude. It is no small order. The Partys unremining anti-corruption campaign unprecedented under Xi. has won strong public support and will certain- ty continue. But some foreign analysts mis- takenly see Xi's anti-corruption campaign as largely a tool of political power. thus reflecting a superficial and one-dimension- al understanding of (Tina. Befitting the size and complexity of the country. for almost every decision of importance. China's lead- ers have multiple motivations. !bribe anti-corruption campaign. these motivations include respect for the rule of law and judicial impartiality: effective func- tioning of the Party devoid of personal interests: public trust in the Party: efficient economic resource allocations (corruption distorts markets): expediting reform (by breaking up"interest groups" that resist reform): maintaining national unity(by removing officials with non-standard politi- cal ambitions): elevating morality dai- nty society: restoring ethical standards of Chinese civilization: and facilitating China's emergence as a world-business center and global role model. Xik thought for the country— his new ideas. new strategies. new initiatives set forth over the past five years — can be encapsulated as the overall vision of the "Five in One" construction (economic. polit- ical. cultural. social. ecological): governance &the country via his -Four Comprehen- sives"(a moderately prosperous society: deepening reform strengthening the rule of law. strictly governing the Party): and renewed economic development via the Five Major Development Concepts (Innova- tion. coordination.green. open. sharing). plus supply-side structural reform". Xi's thought for national rejuvenation includes a grand vision for global govern- ance.consisting of eight big diplomatic con- cepts: a global community of shared destiny and future: win-win cooperation: economic globalization: fairer global governance: a new kind of major power relationship: expanding cooperation while managing dif- ferences: niulfilateralism: and people-to- people exchanges. Moreover. Xi's Belt and Road Initiative— facilitating economic development in developing countries. espe- cially by building much-needed infrestruc- ture — is China's "project of the century': China recognizes it has international responsibilities and seeks to uphold a corn- mon. comprehensive. cooperative and sus- tainable security strategy China's own requirement is to protect the country's three sacrosanct "core interests" — its polit- ical system. economic development and national sovereignty (territorial integrity). China appreciates that to be a major country. with its political influence reflect- ing its economic strength. and also to pro- tect its own core interests. its diplomacy must be pro-active. China does not claim that its"China model" can be adopted by other countries. but the world should understand Xi's principles of governance as optimally suited for China's domestic condi- tions. Party congresses have similar styles and to casual observers, they can all seem much the same. But they do have differences. which are usually subtle and often mean- ingful. For the 19th National Congress. some of the things to look out for are: Are political frameworks and policies stated in their expected forms? If so.confl- dente in political and economic stability s reinforced. How is General Secretary Xi Jinping's sta- tus as "core" further stressed, as expected? Who are the members of the new Stand- ing Committee of the Political Bureau and what are their portfolios? Assuming the Party Constitution is amended to include Xi's new ideas. DPW strategies. new initiatives. will they be given an overarching label? What is the composition of the new Cen- tral Committee? In listing the essential economic, politi- cal social and ecological policies are there shifts of emphasis that however nuanced. suggest changing priorities? For deepening reformsurely stressed. what targets are specified? For example. what will be stated explicitly about State- owned enterprise reform? Environmental protection is a high prior- ity. but what specific regulations and enhanced enforcements distinguish the fight against pollution under XI from those of previouscongresses? Many social areas will be highlighted — for example. education, healthcare. rural land reform. migrant worker residencies — but do any stand out? As already affirmed. the anti-corruption campaign will continue, but will its intensi- ty or direction change in any manner, will it be institutionalized? How will the forth- coming National Supervisory Commission work? What is the relative prominence of mili- tary reform and modernization? What is the relative prominence of inter- national affairs. given the high-profile Belt and Road Initiative and China's intense. pm-active diplomacy? Forecasting the 19th CPC National Con- gress is not all guesswork and triangulating rumors. Following tradition. Xi offered to Party leaders a preview of his Report. Speaking on July 26. he outlined China's acinewments since the previous national congress: new concepts of development. deepened reform enhanced rule of law. strengthened environmental protection. and a more capable military. China. XI said has. after suffering centu- ry-long hardships and tribulations. taken three historic leaps. from standing-up to becoming better-off to becoming stronger. Xi called for a comprehensive. strategic and forward.looking action program highlight- ing the success. and vitality of socialism with Chinese characteristics. the increasing strength of the Party. and China's expanding circle of friends in the international com- munity. In China. he stressed. political legit- imacy Is founded on competence and accomplishment. Significantly: Xi asserted that China's development stands at a new historic start- ing point and that socialism with Chinese characteristics is entering a new develop- ment stage. The CPC cannot rest on its lau- rels. he stressed. The country faces daunting challenges. He warned the Party against self-satisfaction and blind optimism. Xls comments resonated with his core values and bear witness to his consistency In 2006. then Thejiang Party Secretary Xi told me that China should be proud of its successes. but its "achievements should not engender complacency': adding "we need to assess ourselvesobjectively: Preparing for the upcoming congress. XI recognizes that the people's desire for a hap- pier life is stronger than ever. They want better education. higher incomes, stable jobs, reliable social insurance. higher quali- ty healthcare. more comfortable living con- ditions. a more beautiful environment and a richer cultural life. And there has been an inflection point in China's international perspective. reflecting the nation's consequential global engage- ment. The China model. Xi said successful at home. also broadens the way for develop- ing countries to modernize. thus providing Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions for problems facing mankind. The influence of the 19th CPC National Congress and the impact of Xi Jinpingk thought seem for decades to come. The author Ira public intellectual. interna- tional rorpomte strategist. and China eapertfrommentator. He is co-orator (with Adam Bru)and host ofearaVreloser to China with R.L. Kuhn. EFTA00800287 76 Wednesday March 21. 20)8 Frill IR, (i1,O11ALI CPC-led system a political innovation Editor's Hots: The Two Sessions, the annual meet- ings of China's top legislative and advisory bodies, have been under global spotlight for the past few weeks. This year's Two Sessions are of extraordinary importance as they have adopted the constitutional amendments, restructured govern- ment institutions and elected the new national leadership. To understand what the institutional changes mean for China's future, as well as the policy agenda for the coming year, Global Times (GT) Washington- based correspondent Hu Zexi talked to Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn (Kuhn) who is a long-time China observer, and author and editor of over 25 books. Kuhn has been invited to Bei- jing to take a closer look at this years Two Sessions. GT: What kind of policy issues are you following during the Two Ses- sions? Kuhn: The proposed amendments to the Constitution oldie People's Republic of China give a road map of areas deemed critical. Several of the provisions strengthen the stability, continuity and robustness of governance. Beyond these, I looked for any deviations from expectations, for example, on State-owned enterprise reform or local government financing. I also looked for any reaction to the increased push-back against China's rising global capabilities from certain countries. issues and to provide oversight in the management of officials. GT: In recent years. the Chinese govern- ment has made more efforts to make Two Sessions' agenda better meet public expectations. For example, the govern- ment will cooperate with media websites to conduct surveys about top policy areas that the public wants the Two Sessions to address. How do you evaluate such efforts? Kuhn: Irrespective of the nature of the political system or ideology, transpar- ency in governance is the best way for government to deliver effective, ef- ficient programs, and enhance credibil- ity. The Chinese government has been striving to increase transparency; which deserves praise. The Two Sessions are a vehicle for the government to communicate with the people and engage them through media in dealing with all the critical issues. GT: How do you see the political belief of China that democracy should meet the real or fundamental needs of the public? Kuhn: Government performance and democracy are not the same. The former is indeed assessed by alleviating poverty, reducing pollution, improving healthcare and the like. Democracy is the public participation of common people in the complex process of governance. Thus, true democracy is much broader than one-person-one-vote. It includes, primarily, the capacity to provide substantive input on complex GT: China for long has argued that democracy or any other political mecha- nism should be developed on the basis of a country's specific condition. How do you see this belief, as well as its practice? Kuhn: Certainly, political systems dif- fir, even between countries that have the same ideology. Nonetheless, there are great commonalities in the goals and objectives shared by all countries and people. I suspect that over time, measured in not less than decades and perhaps even centuries, there will be a convergence of systems toward what I call with a smile, "Optimiza- tionism" — leaders, officials, executives making myriad decisions every day to optimize outcomes without thinking of the ideology. GT: There's talk about China's unique system of multiparty cooperation and political consultation led by the Com- munist Party of China (CPC) during the Two Sessions. How do you observe this system? Kuhn: The benefits of a one-party-rule are apparent: the coherence of policies, rapid decision-making and formula- tion of strategies that require long-term consistency for long-term commitment But all systems of governance have trade-offs, and two challenges of one- party-rule are assuring that all rational points of view, including dissenting ones, are included in the decision-mak- ing process; and systemic checks and balances for oversight of officials at all levels of government. China's system of multi-party co- operation and consultation, led by the CPC, is a political innovation in includ- ing inputs and ideas from diverse seg- ments of society, while still maintaining harmony of spirit and consistency in policies. But because of its scale and power, the CPC, which is the ruling party, has a higher obligation to pay attention to other parties and voices. A true democracy is measured by how the majority treats the minority. GT: As a decades-long observer of China, what do you think the constitutional amendment will bring to the country? Kuhn: This constitutional amendment is all about strengthening China's system of governance, especially the Party's leadership of the country and President Xi Jinping's leadership of die Party and the nation. Going by the whiplash of Western reactions, one could be forgiven for as- suming that the amendment is all about abolishing term limits of the president and vice president. In fact, there are zi clauses in the constitutional amend- ment and to understand where China is going, one must gauge the meaning and intent of all of them. Xi has been consistent in respect- ing, indeed in championing, China's Constitution, and by now amending it, he underscores the congruity between the realities of how China is governed and what the Constitution says — thus bolstering Xi's commitment to the Rule of Law. Establishing the National Supervi- sory Law and Commissions, expanding the anti-corruption campaign to all public organs and organizations, reaf- firms Xi's commitment to enhancing the rule of law As for term limits, it is not that Xi will hold the formal tides of leader- ship for life, but that he will hold real leadership long enough to bring about China's national rejuvenation and es- tablish Chinese type democratic norms. All factors considered, because of China's special conditions and Xi's spe- cial capabilities, abolishing term limits may be good for China. It is commonly said that China's system of governance can ensure stability and consistency; which is a necessary requirement for advancing reform. GT: What do you see as the under- lying reason for the institutional restructuring of the government passed during the Two Sessions? Kuhn: The sweeping restructur- ing of the Chinese government streamlines the bureaucracy, eliminates institutional conflicts of interest between government bodies, aligns authority with responsibility, and, significantly, enhances the leadership of the Party in the management as well as the oversight of the govern- ment. Although the restructur- ing has multiple motivations, a prime driver is to support China's continuing development under complex conditions — a slowing economy, uncertain financial risk, unacceptable pollution, the special demands of innovation. Given China's challenges at home and abroad the government restructure is timely. Some media outlets describe it as a "reshuffle." as if the random rearrangement of a deck of cards. I beg to differ. This restructuring is as deliberate as it is far-reaching — and planned precise- ly to address a host of contradictions. The outcome is to strengthen CPC's leadership throughout the country. In fact, deepening reform is now defined, for state as well as for Party institutions, as strengthening the CPC's leadership in every sector. The aim is consistency and uniformity in implementing policy. The announcement of the restruc- turing followed swiftly after the adop- tion by the National People's Congress of the constitutional amendment, and although both were long in the works, their rapid-fire sequence serves to un- derscore the preeminence of President Xi in setting the new agenda, and the power of the Party in implementing the new policies. GT: Environment has always been a heated topic at the Two Sessions. How do you see the prospect of green develop- ment in China? Kuhn: I have been following China's environmental problems for over two decades, and until recent years under President Xi. While officials would of course decry pollution, it only became progressively worse. Companies flouted the law. The minuscule fines were a small price for not worrying about the cost of controlling pollution. Officials were loath to risk impeding economic growth. Today is dramatically different. President Xi has raised ecology and environment to the highest category of national priorities. Ecological progress is among the five top goals (along with economic, political, cultural and social progress). Green is the third of die New (Five Major) Concepts of Development. The change in attitudes toward pollu- tion is stunning. For example, fines for corporate pollution now hurt. EFTA00800288 South China Morning Post Monday, November 21, 2016 All INSIGHT Core siren Robert Lawrence Kuhn says those who see China's designation of Xi Jinping as core leader to be a variation of strongman rule misunderstand its significance for a people navigating their way through huge challenges en. at a recent party plenum. President Xi fin- ning (w41 el was designated as "core" of the Communist Party's Central Committee. some Western media were quick to condemn the rise of a new "strongman". While recognising thesignificance of Xi as the core was correct. conjuring up visions of an emerging dictator was not. I recalled my meeting with Xi years earlier. when he was still party secretary of Zhejiang (:Vi.) prov- ince. Even then he was criticising "empty talk" and advising. -We should never overestimate our accomplishments or indulge our- selves in our achievements". I took note of how Xi stressed, "We need to assess ourselves objec- tively". Hardly, in retrospect. the ruminations of a gestating dictator. To understand whyXiis now the core. one must appreciate the complex challenges of our times. (line is now facing multiple chat- laiges:domestically - slow growth, industrial overcapacity, endemic pollution. imbalanced develop- ment. income disparity. social injustice. social service demands: and.intematiomdly- wars. regional conflicts sluggish economies. vola- tile markets. trade protectionism, ethnic clashes, tentrism, geopoliti- cal rivalries. and territorial disputes in theSouthand East China seas. Most critically. because China must deepen its reforms to achieve its oft-promised goal of a "moder- ately prosperous society" by 2020. the resistance of entrenched inter- est gaups must beovercome.More subtly. there is what some call a pervasive "soft resistance' - local officials who do not do their job and economicelites wtomigrate. If reform had been progressing smoothly. then why strengthen central authority by investing Xi with the status of are leader? Xi has encountered obstacles: if there were no obstacles. there would be no need fora coreleader. I have been speaking to party officials and theorists about Xi as core leader. In fact. the necessity of having a leadership core to main- tain stability and expedite reform is the first and foremost of what I found to be four factors relating to Xi's elevation. A second factor is that not only does Xi have the responsibility for China's transformation. he is also accountablefor it. Moremn. he has shown courage in confronting and dismantling a vast. corrupt system of bribery. patronage and illicit wealthaccretion. A third factor is that Xi as the core does not end. and even may not di- minish, the cardinal principle of 00 Xi Jinping as core leader is more a ratification of reality than a shift of fundamentals "democratic centralism". The party bolsters each of the concepts: encouraging the democratic solici- tation of input and feedback from members. lower-ranked officials, and the public: and strengthening centralism through Xi's leadership of the principal levers of power (his positions as party general secretary. head of state. chairman of the Central Military Commission. and head of the "leading groups" on reform. nationalsecurity and inter- net security). A fourth factor is that a core is required to manage the party more strictly and thereby give members and the public more confidence. Witness Xi's relentlessand unprec- edentedanti-corruptioncampailm. which is altering how government officials and industry managers work and even think. Let no one assume that Xi's battle against corruption has been risk-free. Significantly. these four factors undergirding Xi as the core leader map onto his overarching political framework. his strategic blueprint called - the FourComprehensivee -a moderately prosperous society, reform. mleof law. panydiscipline. Xi'sarestatus arises, we're told. through the collective will of the party and the people. Becoming party core is not an automatic consequence of being general sec- retary: a core leader must fit the times and the status must be earned. Speaking at a press conference following the 18thCentral(ommit. tee's sixth plenum last month. Huang Kunming Cad01), executive vice-minister of the committee's Publicity Dwartment, said that the "central and local departments as well as the military all expressed their support" for Xi's position as party core.adding that this decision was "based on thevaluable experi- ence of the party and we feel keenly about it". Iluang explained that "a core is needed to ensure that the party will be thegoveming pany". describing it as significant for upholding the Central Committeessauthority and maintaining the central. unified leadership of the party and for its -staying tnie to itsmission". 'Therefore. party theorists explain. Xi as core leader is more a ratification of reality than a shift of fundamentals. What does Xi as core mean in a historical context? It was Deng Xiaoping (>»I•>') who introduced the concept when he designated Jiang Zemin (::-.,14KI as "core of the third generation" of central leaders. bolstering Jiang's stature following his unexpected appointment as party leader in 1989. At the time. China was facing the dual impedi- memo( economic stagnation and social uncertainty at home, and economic quarantine and diplo- matic isolation abroad. As Deng pointed out: -Any leading group should have a core: a leadership with no coreisunreliable." Only then did Deng retrospec- tively apply the novel term to Mao Zedong ( ₹;d'U) and to himself. as core of the first and second gener- ations. respectively. (Of course. Mao was so utterly dominant that calling him core during his lifetime would have seemed a demotion. Deng remained coreeven when he nolongerheld any officialposition.) Today's world is more complex. China faces threats at home and abroad. Volatility groin and uncer- tainty abounds - the Middle East and Donald Trump are offered as evidence. 'the need to secure China's stability Ls more essential than ever. and thus to strengthen Xi's authority is a primary reason. IN told. for designating Xi as core leader. Party theorists say China "urgently" requires a political nucl- eus that is sophisticated and nuanced.attuned tocontemponuy times. 'though conditions now differ from those in 1989. Deng's admonition rings timelessly true. However. that a core leader is needed now does not mean onewill always be needed. When China becomesa fullymodemised nation. perhaps by mid-century. condi- tionsmaychangeagain. .. True loyalty is telling leadership in private what one really believes is in their best interests I hear frequently of the-painful lessons of China's century-of blood and tears" and that for China not to have a tested and authoritative leadership core would be-unthink- able". Party inner talk says -Xi finning has passed the test of the people ' to beChina's political core. leadership core. and a core of the times. Chinese scholars argue that "core" is a unique characteristic of Chinese political theory - however inapplicable (even inexplicable) in Western political theory. They call Western concerns that Xi as core leader means that "a new emperor is born" wildly unfounded. even paranoic. In feudal society. the emperor ruled unconditionally with arbitrary imperial power, and insucha "command-obey" system. goes the argument. there is simply no need fora are. Rather. giventoday's panypolit- ical structure. the concept of a core both strengthens cohesion and serves to prevent a personalitycult, not to promote one. liming a core means acknowledging that the party system is not the "emperor system"-absolutepowerisrejected - and that the optimum system. at least for the foreseeable future. is a combination of concentrated cen- tralism and democratic collective leadership. Corroborating this functional balance. in thecommuniqua is.sued following the sixth plenum. the "collective leadership system" is reconfirmed. It states: -The imple- mentation of collective leadership and personaldhisionof labour isan important component of demo- cratic centralism and must always be adhered to."And it stresse&"Any organisation or individual shall. under any circumstance. not be allowed to violate this system for any reason."Thethreeany's"seem no accident. Some analysts see contradic- tions. On the one hand. the communique calls for democracy and constructive criticism internal- ly within the party. On the other. disobeying the central leadership is forbidden. backed by vigilant supervision and tough discipline. Yet to read these statements as contradictory is to misunderstand what is happening here. Xi appreci- ates the complex and arduous tasks that lie ahead. He told me so a decade ago. and it is obviously truer today than it was then. The state- ments are harmonised. first. by the partismotivation toseekoptimum policies forthecountm and second. by keeping most of the divergent views intemaL 'true loyalty is telling leadership in private what one really believes is intheirbest interests,not pandering and fawning by repeating what one thinks leadership wants to hear. Though there are concems. no one here worries that Xi will become Mao. China isnow the world's largest trading nation and its second-larg- est economy. China's diplomacy is expanding and its military is grow- ing. From its Beltand Road initiative building infrastructure and facili- tating trade in over 60 developing countries to its leading role in the ON peacekeeping forces. China. the "Middle Kingdom". Ls involved in everymeaningful macro( intema- tional affairs. So. what kind of China do we want? Certainly not one with weak central leadership and fragmented citadels of power. With its hugeand imbalanced population. and its diverse culture and traditions. China today requires a leader with sufficient strength and prestige to secure social stability. drive eco- nomic reform, and guide it in being a responsible world power. Xi as core leader should be good for China and. thus. for the world. Robert LavirenceKuhn is a public intellectual. politkaMeconomics commentator, and an international corporate strategist. He spoke at the launchceremonyol President Xi findings book. The Governance& China.andisthe host of Closer to China with R. L Kuhn. a weekly show co CCTV Nevis produced byAdam Zhu Bring down the curtain on this idiotic political drama 1 (you're tired of all thepolitics, I feel you. It's draining to say the least. especiallywhen the melodrama in Hong Kong is dragging out: it has become downright dreadful when we know there isno respite in si&lit. We were supposed to havea brief break after List September's LegislativeCouncil polls. before the next big event. Even though alarge numberofpeople will be unableto cast a vote in the Election Committeesubsector elections. Ins than a month away. and in the chief executiveethaion. scheduled for late March next year. the city should by now be focusing on what'sahead. But. thanks to the two recently disqualified lawmakers. who lacked the necessary knowledge.ability and respect for oath-taking. our (albeit dysfunctional) legislature has basically been shut down fora month:Hieugly politics that should have been insulated within Alice Wu has had enough of the brouhaha over the oath-taking by two lawmakers. Now that they've been disqualified, HK must focus on battles ahead thechamberonceagain spilled out onto our streets. And what should have been decided and concluded on September.' is now dragging on indefinitely. with two or possibly more by-elections added to election overload. Hell-raising politics is not going away any time soon. but the sheer stupidity of the localist pair's actions really is one for the books - Macbeth. in fact: Tomorrow. and tomorrow, and tomorrozo, /Creeps in this pet0•µm from day today. To the fastayiletbleof recorded time. Mad all ottorsterdays haw lighted fools The unyw duscedealh. Out, out, briefamdleltifis bunt walking shadow, a poor player Mat sinusand frets his hoar upon the stage/ And then is heard no more.ltisa tale To fd byart idiot, fill! of sound and Pry,/ Signifying northing. 'Iheywere indeed full of sound and fury.and theydid nothing for the common good. What they did opened theduor foram imitation tothe counsto intervene. What they did presented an opponunity loran interpretation of the Basic Law by the National People'sCongress Standing Committee. What they did. ultimately.may well become the precedent for other legislatorsto besimilarly barred. And that is why the duo's pledge to spend every penny-and lest we forget. this also means the mounting cost to the purse- to public "appealat all costs" isbeyond rich. coming from them. Clearly. they have yet to wrap their headsaround theconcept of "personal responsibility". Sixtus Baggio Leung flung-hang is wrong in believing that their disqualification from Legco rendered the election meaningless. They have no one but themselves to blamefor their defenestration. It is they whomadethe election meaningless. And. to add insult to the grave injury they brought on the rest of us. they areasking for donations. At somepoint -if werenot there already-we must take serious offence to be taken as fixts.again and again.The curtain must now bedrawn on thisoverly played-out second act. The irony may beton on the be ir but it's pretty obvious who has en played for total fools. In case they haven't noticed. the lawmakerswho served as the duo's chaperones have stopped babysitting them because there is no value in being their keepers any more. Escorting thedurisLegco gate-crashing attemptsserved their purpose: to usher the two straight to their politicalend. arid thevotes the two rendered meaningless are now political spoils. 'the two took the toxic brew-and therewill benostayof execution that could stop those ready to contest their seats. We must fight our political fatigue. We can ill afford to be distracted by those who continuously Hy to foolishly make their own stupid mistakes our collective problem. Alice Wu isapolitical consultant and a former associate direaccof the Asia Pacific Media Network at UCLA The basic law of unintended consequences Mike Rowse says the continuing political tussles in HK illustrate the pain of being caught in a cycle of actions and reactions, and we must address the root cause of the grievances berthas beena considerablefocusrecendy on the Bask law and the ruk of law, and their interaction. Perhaps neglected in the process has been a different but relevant concept: the law of unintended consequences.whereby an actiongives rise to outcomesunforeseen by the instigator. /long Kong's tortuous path towardspolitical reform isa casein poinClhefirst reference tothe idea of universal suffrage for selection of thechief executive comes inArticle 45 of the Basiclaw. promulgated back in 1990.1.00king towards 1997. its purpose was to reassure. Naturally. attention turned to the subject in theearly pan of thiscentury. While peopleunderstood that themove towards universal suffrage had to be in accordance with the -principle of gradual and orderly progress". the reform package put fonvard in 2014 was widely perceived asdisappointing,- the plan tostick with an unrepresentative nominating committee deciding who could enter therace was unpalatable. TheStateCouncits whitepaper on thegovemance of /long Kong.intended to set things straight. only stirred things up and led to the Occupy Centnd pnrests.'the government let the action linger, hoping public anger would pay divichynds in the 2016 LegislativeCouncil election. tAbilethe 79 daysof disruption did bring the pnrestersmomentary opprobrium. menmoriesquickly faded. In theelection. the pro-govemment shareof thevoteactually felt and theattack on theidea of independence led directly to a near 20 percent shareofthe vote fora localist faction. 'this was surely not the objective. Now thegovemment is trying to overturn the election outcome.'the practicer)! banning some potential candidates from standing. then using all meansat hand tounseat some of those elected. isa tactic more usually associated with third-world countries following a military amp. 00 Has something been lost in translation here? Perhaps we need an interpretation of the interpretation In the shon term. the judicial review sought by the chief executiveagainst the decision byLegco president Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen to give Sixtus Baggio Leung Chung-hang and Tau Wai-chinganotheropportunity to take the oath has been successful. MrJustice Thomas Au liing-cheung nded in the High Court that their oaths were invalid. they should not be given a second chance and their trositions should immediately bevacated. Nlanyobsenrers thought he might decline torule at all. and simply refer the matter back to the Legco prmident.The problem with onearm of the administrationdelving too deeply into the processesof another is that it innitably generaths more requests to do so. And. sure enough. we now have legal challengn against more legislators. plus a challenge against the chief executive himself. Given that. in the pastotherlegco members who had politicised their swearing-in and then done it properly second time round were permitted to take up their seats. did Leung and Yau have a' legitimate expectation' that they would enjoy similar treatment? 'the Legcopresident certainly thout.,lit so. hence his original ruling. Now it is fora higher court to decide. Meanwhile. the National People's Congress Standing Committee has sought to clarify Article 104 of the Basic Law.whichrequirei aU peopleconcemed to "swear to uphold the Basic Law of the/long Kong special administrative region of the Peoples Republic of China and swear allegiance" to it. But the interpretation is different: it talksof "a legal pledge... to the People's Republic of thinanndits Hong Kong Special Administrative Region" (emphasis added). Has something been lost in translation here? Perhaps we need an interpretationof theinterpretation. If. at the end of the day. there are two for morel vacant Legco seats. thenwearein by-election territory. I don't think the peopleare fooled throne minute about what is going on. In each constimency.an impeccableoppositioncandidate willstand.wina majority. and take theoath impeccably. Unfortunately. thistragedy-or farce - willcontinue until the government starts to address the underlying grievances overthe lack of meaninblulpoliticalreform instead of just hanunering the symptoms.which generates new grievances in theprocess. Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises and an a net ofessor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. 2.1:011TARUS: Agree ordIsagreevith the opinions on thls page? Write to us a If you have an Idea for an opinion article, ermine to A yellow umbrella, a symbol of the Occupy movement, Is used In a recent protest against Beijing. Photo: Reuters EFTA00800289 South China Morning Post Wednesday, April 25, 2018 All CONTACT US Agree or disagree with the o 111,011S on this page? Write to us at If you have an idea for an o inion article. email it to INSIGHT Looming tech war Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the ZTE showdown points to a misunderstanding over motives s someone who works for US- China understanding and roots for US-China partner- ships. I've been concerned. but of worried, over what others havecafled looming trade war". I've not worried because tariffsdon't work: they are blunt instalments ina *based eamomy. penalising American companies and consumers as much as Chinese. Most American experts oppose tariffs. and Presi- dent Donald 'trump likes to make big deals after making big threats. But I am now worried over what I will call "a looming tech war". because the structural imperatives go deeper. As everyone who follows China knows. the US Department of Commerce has im- posed a denial of export privileges against' it. China's second-largest tele- communications equipment manufactur- er. thus prohibiting US companies from selling essential electronic components and software to ZIT., a crippling sanction. China has responded resolutely. with actions that seem selected from expert sce- nario planning. and with rhetoric. both in- dignation and nationalistic bravado. From China perspective. according to its Ministry of Commerce. "If the United States attempts to curb China's develop- ment ... it miscalculates. The action targets China: however. it will ultimately under- mine the US itself." affecting tens of thou- sands of jobs and hundreds of related US enterprises. "Targeting technology is like throttling the neck of the Chinese enterprises." wrote China Daily. "'the ZI'E case should remind China's decision-makers of the urgency to become self-sufficient in core technologies." President Xi filming has been prescient about domestic control of core technol- ogies.emecially relater.] to the interne and more recently to artificial intelligence. Since taking office in 2012. he has stressed the "hidden risks" that come with core technologies not being mastered domesti- cally. lie said. "Heavy dependence on im- ported core technology is like building our house on top of someone else's walls: no matter how big and how beautiful it is. it won't remain standing during a storm." Innovation is the first of Xi's -five major concepts of development". Beijing also claims that the country itself is a victim of discriminatory policies From the US perspective. according to its Department of Commerce. the prohibi- tion against it i is punishment forZIT. vio- lating US sanctions against Iran and North Korea. making false statements and ob- structing justice. and then after reaching a settlement agmement.viulating it. The United States claims it is not resist- ing China's rise. but rather the country's unfair or illegal means to achieve it.The US action enumerated four such practices as rationale for imposing punitive tariffs, all relating to technology or intellectual prop- erty: foreign firms in China are required to form joint ventures and transfer knowl- edge. as well as license technology with below-market terns and conditions, while the state supports Chinese enterprises in acquiring foreign hi-tech assets, and sane- tions commercial cyher theft. President Trump is wildly unpopular among American elites. especially among policy experts. who donut need macho! an excuse to criticisehim-note the fusillade of attacks on Trump's tariffs. But these elites are not criticising Trump on US moves to counter what they. with unusual consen- sus. perceive to be Mina's unfair policies. and in some cases unlawful programmes. tobecomea world leaderinstate-of-the-an technologies. especially Al. information technology. robotics. advanced manufact- uring. new energy vehicles. aviation and biotechnology. China claims that it is still a developing country. so different misapply. a founda- tional principle of theWorld TradeOrgan- isation. Beijing also claims that the country itself is a victim of discriminatory policies restricting its irnpons of hi-tech products. Of course. China had to respond with appropriate actions as well as confident words. imposing heavy tariffs on (IS sorghum and signalling that additional agricultural tariffs were at the ready. along with barely veiled threats against US com- panies operating in China. Here's my fear. While I have argued that most mainstreamAinerican experts are not motivated to impedeChina's rise.asmany in China believe. I can no longer make that argument persuasive. In the US, there has been a dark tum among experts that US policy towards China. calibrated over four decades to shepherd China's rise. has failed: China. Greater effort is required to foster gender diversity Kevin Sneader and Anu Madgavkar say the Asia-Pacific region needs more women leaders omen's representation in high- ranking positions in business and politics isa *bat issue. but an even more pressing one in Asia-Pacific. Across the region only one in five people in leading roles isa woman. 'Ibis waste of women's talent comesat an economic cost. hlany economies in the region are ageing arid skillsshonagesare on the rise: making more of women's potential can help meet suck challenges. Businesses gain a great deal from supponing women. NIcKinscy's 2018 report "The Power of Parity" found that companies in the top quarter for gender diversity on theirexecthive teams are 21 percent more likely . to experienceabove- avenge profitability. Even in developed economies in the Asia-Pacific. few womenare getting to the top in business- in Japan. thereareno femaleCEOs in the top 100public companies. In Australia and Singapore. the share of women CEOs in 2016 was only6 percent and 5 percent respectively:Hie Philippines. a traditionally matriarchal society whose government has been proactive in tackling genderinequality. does better in senior positions overall. but only 3 percent of CEOs and 15 percent of board members are women. Thelowershare of women in leading positions within companies isn't allabout the glass ceiling-the point at which women's careers appear to halt. Rather. women's under-representation has its rootsas far back as the education system. In India. only 44 percent of students in tenkuyeducation are female and many graduatesdon't take up employment: only 25 percent of entry-level positions in Indian companiesare taken bywomen. In Japan. the shared women enrolled in college is higher.at 47 percent. but women were only28 percent of studentsattending the top lOuniversities. lbeshare of wumentrodes sharply from entry-level to the boardroom.and the biggest "breakpoint- is motherhood. In a 2015 McKinsey survey.45 percent of Asian executives cited the"anywhere.anytime" performance model as the largest barrier to women moving into senior roles. In Japan. a sunvy found that three-quarters of women respondents said they were not interested in managerial positions. partly because promotion would mean working oven longer hours. lbesecond most cited factor behind womendropping out of work is the "doubleburden" of holding down a job while looking after the family. In China. 33 percent of female respondents toa 2017 sanitysaid that they hada lower salary what they rehimed to work after having a baby. and 36 per cent said they had to accept a demotion. Sixty-three percent said they did not want a second child because this would hurt their career. Manywomenstrunle to return to work because childcare options are limited or too expensive. In Australia. net childcare costs (paid by two-eamerfamilies) were 20 percent of an avarage family's income in 2015.compared with the 13 percent average in ()ECU economies. Theattrition of WOR)C11 from the talent pipeline starts even earlier than motherhood. associetalanitudes militate against women pursuing a career and prioritise looking after families. In India. 70 percent of respondents to the 2010-2014 World ValuesSunty agreed with the statement. 'When a umber works for pay. the children suffer." More can be done to give women the freedom to choose a career as well as motherhood There has been some progyess;the shared womenoncompany boards has been rising reflecting effons by both governments and private-sector organisations. India has made it mandatory for companies to have at least one female director, and theAusualian Securities lbcchangeCorporate GovemanceCouncil tracksgender diversity in its constituent companies. Japanese pharmaceutical company 'l'akeda hit its target of 30 percent of new they have come to belime, has become a competitor and may becomean adversary, and that US tolations with China must now be managed as with an emergent adver- sary. not as witha developing partner. InChina. nationalistic voicesare on the rise. castigating the US for its self-serving motivationto impedethina'srise.and call- ing for China to become more self-reliant, more rapidly. especially in world-class semiconductors. so that the countrywoukl not be mineral* to US "blackmail". Welcome to the unhappy world of self- fulfilling prophecy. where the actions of each side in response to a perceived threat from the other side increases thelikelihml of that threat morphing from theoretical to actual. To both sides. I offer two pieces of advice. First. take a breath anda fresh look, because the road on which you are travel- ling will not lead to a happy place. Second.contemplatewhy the othersicle is misinterpreting your actions. To my American friends, what makesChina think the US is resisting its rise? To my Chinese friends. what makes the US think that Mina isa competitor and may become an adversary? Projecting malevolent motives and see- ing sinister conspiracies is the easy wayout. It can solicit cheers and plaudits in one's domestic media but it will impede progress and islikelytobeself-defeating, The US and China must each figure out how not to confirm the othersself-fulfilling prophecy. Robert LawrenceKuhn is a public intellectual. international corperatestrategist and investment banker, and China expert and commentator. He is the author of HowChints Leaders Think anda co-creator Nth Adam Zhu) and host of CGIffs "Closer to China with R.L Kuhl' and -TheWatcheCcommentaries managers being women (from only6.2 per cent in 2015) through a range of initiatives including flexible working hours. However. there is much more that can be done to give women the freedom to choose a cam, aswell as motherhood. Narrowing theleadership gender gap will requireconcerted action by governments and companies from encouraging and helping girls to cam the right skills for a changing labour market and mourning women in their careers.to shifting attitudes towards women's roles through public-awareness campaigns to- perhaps most importantly- making work flexibk. More help with childcare is urgently needed.Govemments can use public spending to expand childcare provision and companies can set up nurseries. Flexible working practices in companies are vital. In Australia. financial series company Suncorp enables flexible working through work at home hubs" that combine homework stationsand working spaces in regional shopping centres. Such efforts are only likely to be effective witha root-and-branch shift in attitudes towards women's roles in society. Governments can lead from the front. setting targets forwomen's representation in business asJapan and Singapore have done. and more companies can push for true diversitywithin their ranks. Doing so is not only in the interests of their bottom line but the health of the economies in which they work Kevin Sneader is chairman. Asia-Pacific.of McKinsey8 Company.Anu Madgavkar isa partner at McKinsey Global institute Older people still have lot to offer in the workplace Paul Yip says measures to ensure Hong Kong retirees remain active through employment may help prevent poverty and partially offset the impact of a declining birth rate E mployment is the most robust method for keeping people out of poverty. In ilong Kong's latest poveny situation report. for thosewith a job. the poverty rate is only 12.3 percent.compared to 77.4 percent among those not working.Among older adults withajob. it is 12.9per cent. compared with 48.2 percent among those without employment. Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung Kin-chung has recently raised the possibility of pm:noting woMorce participation for those aged 50.64 and helping those aged 65-74 re-enter the job market. Hong Kong's workforce participation rate among olderadults is 17.7 percent. lower than in Japan (22.7 per cent). Singapore (26.8per cent) andSeoul (31.5per cent). TheJapanese government has been voyactive in pm:noting workforce panicipationamong its older citiwns.emecially since 27 percent of its population was aged 65 or over as of 2017.The population size hasdecreased. from 128 million in 2010 to 127 million in 2015. and the United Nations estimates that the number will continue total) until 2061.The numberofmigrantsmoving to the country has not offset the population decrease. leaving no choice but col:want the labour participation and productivity rate.especiafly among olderadultsand married women with children. 'though Hong Kong's total fenility rate is only 1.2 per woman-less than the 1.4 in Japan-we have benefited from migration from the mainland to keep our population young.Our life expectancy isalso very similar toJapan's. at 81 Carmen and 87 forewomen. It is time to explore how tomake better use of our older IP IP The most important thing is to provide an option for older adults to be active in the job market adults. We should create the right environment for raising the retirement age and extending employment beyond that age. Some issues. like excessive health and medical insurance costs forth(' older workforce. and long wonting hours. should be re-examined. The govxmment cancreatea fund to protect against excessive increases in insurance costs, while introducing a more fkxible wonting arrangement for the older workforce. The most important thing is to providean option for older adults to be active in the job market. and give them the choice of whether to continue in a job:Mose who have had enough could perhaps take on volunteer work in the community. For those who stay on with paid employment. more flexible time arrangements would better suit their needs, while their rok•s coukl be redefined so as not to stand in the wayof the career advancement of younger workers. Some tangible support might be needed for thebusiness sector. ideally through a tax-deductible arrangement rather than the proposed cash support. Forsome work. such as in teaching and research. thesituation depends on individualability.As in overseas countries. participants should be allowed to work asking as they meet expectations.At present. a vigorous review process takes place to determine whether to extend beyond retirement age. The education levels of Hong Kong's older adults is not high and among those with very low levels. most can only find work in low-skilled jobs such as cleaning and security duties. Nevertheless, these areas face a shortage of labour and can be a good fit. In such cases, people's rights and pay should be better protected. to avoid companies exploiting this map of workers. Also. sometimes.older adultsare not driven by money when seeking work. Forsome, finding meaning in their work can be sufficient.The Japanese emerienceshows that some older adults continue to work to maintain their independenceand fitness. Such workers. whatever they do. display high levels of professionalism. Respecting the wishes of older adults and providing a quality choice in terms of working would be a win- win situation for the whole community. Paul Yip is chair professor (Population Health)in the Departmental Social Work and Social Administrationat the University of Hong Kong For some, finding meaning In work Is Important, as with these women who recycle used clothes to make bags. EFTA00800290 South China Morning Post Commentinsight & Opinion United States US-China trade war could end with a `big deal' through baby steps towards mutual understanding Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the US must accept China's need to support technological development, while China should work with US policymakers who oppose tariffs but want the country to further open its markets and protect intellectual property rights PUBLISHED : Thursday, 30 August, 2018, 5:02am - UPDATED : Thursday, 30 August, 2018, 6:15am 11 Robert Lawrence Kuhn EFTA00800291 President Xi Jinping Major Speech Seattle September 24, 2015 Robert Lawrence Kuhn Simultaneous Commentary HAPPENING NOW XI JINPING ADDRESSING U.S. BUSINESS LEADERS EFTA00800292 Quest Means Business China's Xi jinping UN Speech Robert Lawrence Kuhn Interview ieptember 28, 2015 CHINA'S XI JINPING MAKES FIRST U.N. SPEECH o RkhartiOuest CHINA'S XI JINPING MAKES FIRST U.N. SPEECH CNNI 2212 CET RichardOuest EFTA00800293 EFTA00800294 CNN'S AMANPOUR — May 29, 2013 President Xi Jinping to meet President Barack Obama ►r ►W -11 WREN POWER MEETS POWER Pat 11 Interview with Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn, long-time adviser to China's leaders. ace.china-us-amanpour.cnn CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Good evening. Christian Amanpour. There may officially be only one superpower today, but another is rapidly advancing. The United States and China jockey for position at the pinnacle of the world in what might just be called a race to the top. So how will the first tete-a-tete go between their leaders, the two most powerful men on Earth, U.S. President Barack Obama and China's leader, Xi Jinping, will meet just over a week from now in an informal setting at the aptly named Sunnylands Estate just outside Los Angeles. China is anxious and angry about Obama's much-touted "pivot" to Asia and about what China perceives to be the U.S. siding with Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea. The United States, for its part, has a laundry list of concerns, everything from alleged Chinese hacking of even its most sensitive military secrets to its influence over North Korea and Pyongyang's nuclear saber-rattling. President Xi says the U.S.-China relationship is at a crucial juncture and he says that he wants to forge, "a new type of great power relationship." So what exactly will that look like? We need to know because this may just be the most important relationship in the world today. And in a moment, I will dig deeper with Robert Lawrence Kuhn, a long-time adviser to China's leaders. AMANPOUR: Robert Lawrence Kuhn has tremendous insight into China's leaders. He's a long-time adviser to the Chinese government; he's met President Xi several times and he's the author of the book, "How China's Leaders Think." That is a big title. Welcome to the studio. EFTA00800295 Fareed Zakaria GPS "Xi Jinping: The Governance of China" Robert Lawrence Kuhn October 5, 2014 P re SIMInuagial antg WHAT IN THE WORLD IS XI JINPING THINKING? ON FZ: What in the world is the leader of the second largest economy on the planet thinking? That's a question many would love to know the answer to, but in a closed, secretive society, like China, it's all but impossible to know. He rarely gives interviews, and the press in China is far from free. But now we have something to look at Chinese President Xi Jinping has a new book, entitled The Governance of China, and it's aiming for worldwide impact State media there reports that the book has been published in nine languages: Chinese, English, French, Russian, Arabic, Spanish, Portuguese, German and Japanese. My next guest, Robert Lawrence Kuhn, says it is a milestone. Kuhn has advised the Chinese government for twenty-five years, and is the author of How China's Leaden Think. Welcome. KUHN: Pleasure to be here. FZ: First, give us a sense of who this man is for our viewers. Who is Xi Jinping, and why is he a little different from China's ordinary leaders? KUHN: Xi Jinping has been involved in all aspects of what makes China today. His father was one of the founders of the country, truly a great revolutionary and a great reformer in the early days. Xi Jinping graduated from Tsinghua University ['China's Min, with a degree in chemical engineering. Then he went through more than two decades working at the local level. Starting in a county, and then a city, Xiamen, working his way up for many years in Fujian province, becoming the governor. Then for five years Xi was the Party Secretary of, the number one official responsible for, Zhejiang province, which is the center of entrepreneurship in China. So that gives him a great sense of business. And that was when I first met Xi Jinping, actually, in 2005, and then again in 2006, seeing him doing the real work of running a province, a local area. President Xi is a person, when you see him, who is unassuming; he's big, he has a strong presence in a room, but you feel very comfortable with him. He doesn't put on airs, he's very warm and EFTA00800296 BBC World News Robert Lawrence Kuhn China's Economy & Politics President Xi's 'Four Comprehensives' August 25, 2015 HOST: Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn is an advisor to the Chinese government and author of How China's Leaders Think and he joins me now from Beijing. A cut in interest rates today - but in China any economic decision is always colored with politics. RLK: Certainly people are concerned here, but you have to realize a 430/0 drop in the Shanghai stock market is still 250/0 above its 52-week lows, so what the economists, government, tries to do is to distinguish between the so-called real economy and the stock market. Most people realize China's stock market was overvalued, but perception is reality, and if people have less money on paper, they'll spend less, and so the fall will affect the real economy. And you're right, the way to look at such situations in China is not just economically - you can't look at China without looking at politics, and here there are two major areas. One is President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington. This has been a very tense time in Sino-US relations: South China Sea, cybersecurity, human rights, lots of issues. But what this economic uncertainty and volatility will do - I hope - is to make both presidents focus on what really affects human beings and human lives, focus on economic areas, because this is where there can be some commonality between China and the US. The contentious issues are real, but economics is more real for people. Domestically in China, it's really interesting, because in recent days, there have been editorials in People's Daily talking about extreme resistance to reform and older leaders who are still involved and maybe shouldn't be, and so you have to look at domestic politics in terms of what Xi Jinping, who is China's dominant leader, the president of the country, head of the party, head of the military, and other titles as well, and what his overarching policy is. It's called the "Four Comprehensives." We learn from each one. The first says that China wants to build a moderately prosperous society'. That's their short- term goal. It's not different than others have said in ...a .1 CHINA MARKETS FALL China Cute interest rates for fifth lITO since Nov -3. 51%-112. 77 ; CHINA MARKETS FALL Clime slOcks COntinue to tumble CHINA MARKETS FALL fuf tereay Sh3/191,10 markets saw D4Q9e$1 fa la 8 years EFTA00800297 I 门报 v ——「 声报 杂志 ' S ' people.cn 天酮 P 1S3 flIRT OuI &4. PSWIW' “一带・路”将成本世纪伟大敌事 ・——t访擅．比鞋姜士盒主味，旧柙・劳伦厮・庭庳 ‘ ・．. 啼厢，．呐■．. 咚粪 ..I.讧 - 。。 fl4C . ....t .- I轳4'"' .．・・-・’．‘一．・．.' -1 "Ill e r . .t . ・・电・．・・．—— ．皿・ ’一＇ ・・．・・拓 -‘一・一・ ．棉——… 镂鞯 鑫基 鑫辫 一呻I啸上隹剿一崔＂・两－ M ? : ：逮辗 人民日报海外版2017年05月0s日星期一 撅回目录 往期回顾匡］日 回分类检索 “一带一路”将成本世纪伟大故事 ——专访美国库恩基金会主席罗伯特・劳伦斯 库恩 本报驻美国记者张朋辉 《人民日报海外版》 (2017年05月0s日 第0I 版） 鸡 ： … … 逋 向 「 命 运 共 同 体 」 的 必 由 之 锵 第01版．耍闻 版面导航 下＝版◆ 罗伯特一劳伦斯一库恩 “一带一路刀国际合作高峰论坛开幕前夕，本报记者专访了美国库恩基金会主席罗 伯特 劳伦斯 库恩°作为此次高峰论坛的嘉宾之一，库恩博士密切关注中国倡议 的u一带一路为建设，对“一带一路力建设及u一带一路＂国际合作高峰论坛抱有很高期 待°他认为，k一带一路力倡议正当其时，x一带一路＂建设将成为21世纪最伟大的故事 之 一 。 中国找到了同世界的契合点 库恩分析说，“一带一路对在世界这么受欢迎，是因为中国找到了自身发展经验同 世界需要的契合点。他说，胡一带一路力倡议在全球许多国家受到热烈欢迎，主要有3 个原因：一是基础设施是很多发展中国家的迫切需要，基础设施建设是u一带一路为的 重要关注点。二是世界上很多国家经济增长缓慢，他们希望通过参与u一带一路爿建设 项目刺激经济增长。三是对于许多发展中国家来说，中国既是一个榜样，也是能够带 来专长、经验和资本的国家，参与k一带一路力建设项目是与中国加强合作的理想方 式 ° “一带一路刀倡议提出3年多来，成果超出预期，得到国际社会积极评价°库恩 说：“习近平主席关于合作共赢的全球化观念，从蓝图变成了路线图，从计划到付诸 实践，从纸面的概念变成了地面的项目。过去3年，＜一带一路’建设项目遍地开花，我 亲自见证了这一设想从愿景变成现实° 刀库恩说，他更看重的成就是将正在进行的“最 EFTA00800298 US Xinhuanct World Business Entertainment Sports Culture & Mu Sci & Tech Health Odd Interview: Xi's engaging, creative diplomatic approach to benefit China-U.S. ties: U.S. expert 12015-09-10 21:06:53 I Editor: Tian Shaohui by Xinhua writer Luo Jun BEIJING, Sept. io (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping, with an engaging and creative diplomatic approach, is likely to secure "a big success" in his visit to the United States later this month, said U.S. expert Robert Kuhn. In an exclusive interview with Xinhua, Kuhn, author of "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin" and "How China's Leaders Think," recalled Xi's previous trip to California as president and to Iowa as vice president as "one of the best images as for China." EST OF HONOR 2015 NCE 1HE FUTURE THROUGH CHNA AUERCA • GLOBAL MARKET KRUM THE I r ite Ndri I tic. • ....MY. 1 (The photo shows Robert Lawrence Kuhn introducing "Xi .finping: The Governance of China" at BookExpoAmerica in New York on May 29, 2015) "He went to sporting events and I was at one of the luncheons. You really had a wonderful, enriched feeling about China at that point," Kuhn said. Now with the United States entering a political season of presidential election, issues of contention with China and the lack of overall understanding of China's policy has been increasing, but Kuhn believes that low expectations can become an advantage as people may "get surprised on the positive EFTA00800299 8 CH INA DA ILY.CO M.CN/OP IN ION MONDAY. OCTOBER 20.3014 le a 4: CHINA DAILY Comment CHINADAILY oi it. a4 EDITORIAL A foundation of law THE FOURTH PLENARY SESSION OF THE 18TH Central Committee of the Communist Party of China opens on Monday and will last for four days. The designated theme — governing through the rule of law — indicates how important this meeting will be for the future of both the Party and the country. That this is the first time in 17 years the Party has designated such a theme for a plenary session speaks volumes about the importance the new leadership attaches to it. It is high on the agenda. Yet. the more the concept of rule of law has been discussed. the more obvious it becomes that there is. today. much to be desired. More than 50 minister-level or higher officials have either been indicted or placed under investigation for abuse of power in the past year or so. underlining the fact that the rule of law is sorely needed. It is perhaps the only way to eliminate. once and for all. the most serious threat to good governance and to secure the blessings of prosperity and justice to the people. The fact that power todaycan effectively nullify the law. and that those in power can circumvent it. not only deprives the Party of its capacity to govern the country in a consistently fair and just manner but also disrupts the reasonable running of the marketplace. Abuse of power makes it impossible for fair- ness to prevail in the socialist market economy. Despite the great achievements China has made over more than three decades. it will be very difficult for its economy to grow in a sound manner— and neither willsociety progress in a healthy way — unless fair competition and mutual trust can be secured and ordinary people's rights and interests can be guaranteed through the rule of law. If the country is to achieve further reforms in various fields and establish and maintain a fair and just society. the power- worshipping mentality among government and Party officials must be eliminated. This is a core goal of the leadership Unless the ovenvhelming majority of Party and government officials not only respect the law. but follow it when making decisions. governing the country by the rule of law will amount to little but lip service. It will be no easy job. and it will take time for the power-ori- ented way of doing things to be transformed. But the new Par- ty leadership has shown it has the courage to face the challenge. We therefore have reason to expect much from the current plenary session as they work to put the country on the right track OTHER VIEWS Historic moment T he convocation of the Fourth PlenarySession of thel8th 1 Com- munist Party of China Central Committee. whose theme is promoting the rule of law embodies the CPC's deepening percep- tion on governance and the law. October 15. I t is the first time that the CPC as the ruling Party will make a comprehensive plan on the rule of law in the form of a Partydoc- ument. The session. which marks the ruling Party's significant strategic layout on how to govern the nation in accordance with laws and the Constitution. illustrates its newexploration of social- ism with Chinese characteristics. The CPC Central Committee will focus on discussions on how to promote rule of law in at a plenary session. ... It has only six years to 2020. the deadlineset for the realization of a well-off society for China, and 35 years to 2049. the promised year for China to be a prosperous. denial atic civilized and har- monious socialist modern nation. All these mean China has entered a crucial stage of deepened reforms. Only by sticking to "governance of the nation according to laws" will China realize Its historic mission. °nobs-rig. T he National People's Congress, China's top legislature, should playa bigger role in the country's efforts to promote the rule of law. For example. the NPC can push for deepened reforms within the framework of the Constitution and laws through legislation to realize a benign interaction between reforms and the rule of law. The deeper the water China's reforms will enter. the more legal guidance and guarantees these reforms will need. The NPC enjoys a broad space for maneuvering in this regard. Beijing Netter (Moberg I n the last three months. the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has held two conferences studying major issues related to comprehensively pushing for the nde of law. As the theme "China filed by law" is set for the Fourth PlenarySession of the 18th CPC Central Committee. the overall planning and prospect of a China governed by law will become increasingly explicit. Lianhe worm° October 14 co NT.‘cr I'S China Daily IS Him Poi gle 0,5,0^g Barre ixon •ax,roi :o C491.8366 suoscoption: -26400-69902.0S amernsemone .SG (0)10 GO, 5631 mono *Is China Dolly USA 1.0JEtrcocway. Sete 280a, Nan York. NY 10D. .1212 537 FAO China Dolly Hong Kong (Asia) Room 1219. wore ki Centre 7 TinYmn Kip Road Alx-nleen.Hete King .852 818 5111 China Day UK es.non Strrel LC" kko EC4N (MA -44 (0)207:A0270 China Deny Africa 212-al-0010D.NtsfeeL Kenya •254 (0)20 5.22 3498 (Nwob) ROBERT LAWRENCE KUHN editorial • opinion Decoding Xi's future vision President Xi's new book reveals his thinking about the country's governance and maps out a path for achieving the Chinese Dream T he Gam-name of China. Presi- dent X1-finning's new book. is unprecedented. Can analyzing the book elucidate Xi's thinking and illuminate China's future? Consider seven frameworks or perspectives: publishing purpos- es. overarching themes. content analysis. chain of developmental causation. domestic goals. domes- tic means and global principles. Publishing Purposes: substance. symbol. signal. Substance means Xi's political pad- lotion/1y and wide-ranging policies — organizing 79 speeches and commentaries in 18 chapters — to discern how Xi intends to realize the Chinese Dream, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation': panto) means recognizing la's emergence as China's leader. with greater authority confi- dence and support than observers had expected when he first took office two years ago. Signal means communicating Xi's way of thinning to global audiences in nine languages. an original and explicit outreach to engage the world on mul- tiple levels. &marching Themes pride. stability, myna- sibility. vision. Pride expresser the yearning of the Chinese people for the"great rejuvenation". Stabili- ty means maintaining thecurrent political system (Socialism with Chinese characteristics and the ParrYs leadership). Responsibility means"roaliz- ing a moderately prosperous society by the centen- ary dthe Party in 202r Vision means 'turning China into a prosperous. democratic culturally advanced and harmonious modern socialist coun- try by the centenaryof the Peoples Republic of China in 2049: Content Analysts. How does M impute impor- tance to topics? By examining what's in Xi's book can we explore what's on Xi's mind? Of the book's 18 chapters,11 relate to domestic affairs. seven to foreign affairs: six have political relevance: six con- cern standards of living: and four standards of behavior. Categorizing the content about a third is politics and people: another third on international relations: about LS percent each on reform and development. and society and culture: and about 8 percent on national security and defense. Penn- sive throughout is reform. Chain ofDevelopmental Causation. The Chinese Dream is founded on political stability which eethies far-reaching reformr which in tom promotes economic development. and which when combined with rtde of law and Chinese cal- ves. strengthens China's society. culture. ecology and even defense ihhere is this "chain of causa- tion" in Xi's book? The first and last chapters affirm political stabili- ty: 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" and "The CPC Leadership': both of which assert the Partys political primacy and thus assure social sta- bility 'The Chinese Dream" is the second chapter. proclaiming the grand mission of national resat, settee and personal well-being. Then chapters on deepening reform and economic devekopment which lead to chapters on rule of law advanced cul- ture. social undertakings and ecological progress. Domestk Goals: tvittes moralky. prover/O. Minters. happiness. Wines: Xik vision is to incul- cate China's traditional values —"the thoughts of the ancient sages': exemplified byConfucianism — into socialist core ValUeS. ("We must take tradition- al Chinese culture as the base:) Morality Derived from values. morality is described as "conscious law". and "civic morality' is characterind as need- ing improvement. while "paragons of morality are important banners for building public ethics". ("A gentleman takes morality as his bedrock" — a tra- ditional virtue that Xi quotes.) Prosperity:"Com- mon prosperity is the fundamental principle of Chinese socialism ... Newill accelerate China's overall prosperity". Fairness: Because the Chinese people have always hada perception that 'inequal- ity rather than want is the cause of trouble': Xi says.China "should do a better job of promoting LI MIN FU JING fairness and justice. Happiness: The Chinese Dream. Xi says, is to 'bring happiness to the Chi- nese people: to "ensure the people greater happi- ness" — but he cautions. 'happiness does not fall from the sky. nor do dreams come true automati- calY an Xi's book "values" occurs about 120 times."morality' 24:prosperity' 67: "fairness- 44 and "happiness"16.1 Donaesde Meant close to the people. realesm, ambit/to, reform. ruk ofiate.osnibatin g corrup- tion.tlose to the people" is an all-encompassing way of thinking that shapes all decisions. Realism: "I have repeatedly said that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can in no way be realized easily: Xi says. "Millie filly affirming our achieve- ments. we should also be aware of our shortcom- ings Stability: The precondition for all else. stability is a recurrent and foundational theme ("stability' occurs125 times). Reform: Those who minder whether Xi is a "real reformer" should read "Explanatory Notes ... Concerning Compre- hensivelyContinuing Reform" (page 76). Exam- ples: the market plays a "derisive role": farmers given transactional property rights: the judicial system separate from the administrative system. Rule of Law."A fundamental principle" and "the basic way to nun the country" — the Fourth Plena- ry oftlw 18th CPC Central Committee. focusing on rule of law. is Xi's call to action. Combating corrup- tion Ls a hallmark of Xi's administration. enhanc- ing each of the fiveother domestic means. It is no accident that the chapter on combating corruption is positioned significantly between 'Close Ties with the People and "The CPC Leadership': I bear witness to Xi'sconsistency In 2006. Adam Thu (my long-term partner) and I met private) with then-Au/Ian* Party Secretary' Xi. He stressed that while China should be properly proud of its succeises."achievements should not engender complacency: Xi said: "We need to muss our- selves objectively" Global Principles. Consider five. Independ- ence (China remains unaligned). Multi-polar world (no country dominates). One country. two systems (Hong Kong, Mac.ao.11tiwan). Peaceful development ('We have made a solemn pledge to the whole world that we will never seek hegemo- ny). Multilateral affairs (cooperation with the global community). These five global principles drive ChinaY 'new model of major country rela- tions" (primarily with the US). 'neighborhood diplomacy' (Japan. Vietnam. Koreas etc.). and "cooperation with developing countries" (such as in Africa). The Silk Road economic belt (land route and maritime) is President Xik new initiative for multinational development I lereY my blurb for MY book "This book is a milestone, both in substance and symbol offering openly the political philosophy of President Xi fin- ping and recognizing his emergence as China's senior leader. While misunderstandings about China and its leadership abound there is now no need to speculate about President Xi. Here is how he thinks. candidly and comprehensively' It is the pride of a patriot. The author is an inteniational oorponue strate- gist and politimbeconomimannmentator. lie is the author of How China's Leaders Think and° biography melanin president Jiang Zemin. He gave one of the speeches at the launching cernno- ny for Xi liming: The Governance of China. at the Frankfurt Boob Fairon Oct& Courtesy, not confrontation, best for Europe M Mister of Commerce Gao I lucheng arrived in the lobbyof the European CommissionY headquarters at 9 o'clock on Saturday morning. He was led to the office of outgoing Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht who has been a Mom in the side o Chinese businesses bemused his protectionist attitude ever since he took over the job in 2010. De Gucht. 60, will be replaced in a few days by Swedish politician Cecilia Malmstrom.46. when a newly constituted commission gets underway. In the afternoon. the Chinese side announced a long-awaited agreement in principle: Brussels will not launch an investigation into subsidies of China's telecommunication imports into the European market. The EU side still needs to go through internal procedures for formal approval. The threat was mainly targeted at Chinese tele- communications equipment makers Fluawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corp. While the big picture of relations has been a positive one, the Europeans have annoyed Beijing from time to time — for example. by allowing the Dalai Lama tonsil. by attacking China on human rights and by imposing high trade birders. Despite such irritants. Beijing has sent con- structive signals. In the first half of this year. Pres- ident Y.1 -Unpin* paid the first-ever visit of a Chinese president to the European Union's head- quarters. And last week at the summit of Asian and European leaders in Milan. Italy. Premier Li Kerdang hosted a special dinner for Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rom- Ny thanking them for their contributions to pos. itive relations. At the dinner. the leaders were thought to have touched on the telecommunica- tion trade dispute. which involves about 1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) annually. The path to Saturdays solution was similar to a paaern set earlier. in mid-20L1. after both sides worked through an anti-dumping and anti-subsi- dy investigation involving China's multi-billion- dollar solar panel exports to the EU. Brussels began that investigation in 2012. Beijing was unhappy that there had been no high-level invitation to Visit Brussels a year after the launch of the investigation. In May last year. Li made his first trip to Ger- many after taking office and won the support of the German government which vetoed Brussels' decision. following dozens of EU member states. Li made a last-minute call on Barroso the fol- lowing month. as Brussels was about to vote on whether to end the solar panel dispute through amicable consultation. Li's decisive role was crucial in preventing the escalation of a trade war. If Beijing had opted to deal with such disputes in an eye-for-eye, tooth- for-tooth manner. both sides would have been losers. with the EU taking the brunt. It has already suffered two economic recessions, and its jobless rate has been in double digits for a few years now. Of course. with the trade volume between Chi- na and Europe expanding. and with investment pouring into Europe. China's government its businecsPc and its media must work to make the most of the rising economic tide. So far. there is no unified Chinese business council in Brussels to represent and lobby for Chinese investors in Europe. By contrast, a major US business organization reportedly has 300 staff members focusing on Brussels' policymaking. A lack of communication and influence can easily lead to misunderstandings. Bureaucrats in Brussels usually follow ihhshington's lead when making policies that affect China. lYade commission leaders need to make more field trips to member states to learn how Chinese businesses matter. Mike China's solar panel exports for example. The industry. which involves about 400.000 workers in China has offered competitive prod- ucts to thousands of European upstream compa- nies and helped Europe achieve its status as a green energy leader. In telecom. Fluawei and 7XE, are deeply inte- grated with European partners. And. incidentally. Huawei is a steady job creator in Europe. where young people. in particular. have faced huge employment challenges. If De Gucht had kept the big picture in mind. he would not have made confrontational moves against China and its businesses. Overall. the EU recognizes China as strong stra- tegic partner. This is the starting point for dispute control. Amicability helps both sides win. ih1th confrontation. everyone loses. The author is China Daily drieg dent Brunel. EFTA00800300 Homepage (Program Videos Anchor !About Us 'Contact Us Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 07/12/2015 Understanding the CPC Episode 2 Anchor Robert L Kuhn Robert Lawrence Kornisa beg-time deviser to China's 60, a reatIOn3 and the Chinese gerer-ment. and an rternaucrei corporate eitrewgiol one ;vestment barker. Special Coverage Understanding the CPC 44, ION • -'141 )," 4"' k With me Communist Party of Chine having marked the 94th anniversary of its founding on Jury 1st CCTV NEWS presents an exclusive inside look at the Party. Hosted by noted author Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn, in our live-episode special series 'Under-standing the CPC; the Party opens up. sharing its story with the world on TV for the first time ever. Featuring interviews and insights from leading Party thinkers and Officials, the series offers an insider's perspective on the workings of the CPC. its approach to governance and Its vision for the future of China. To catch the episodes, tune into CC every S . starting July 5th, at 970111 and 930 Beijing time. Latest Episodes Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 07/12/2015 Understanding the CPC 2- The CPC's governance practce tar Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 06/21/2015 China model Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 05/31/2015 Xi Jindrie: The Governante of China Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 05624/2015 China's foothas reform plan Closer to China with R.L. 05/17/2015 °ma's foreign policy About Program C'esor to China with R.L.Kuhn is a now ikly show that brings true, Complex rt, of China to the world through !did, Intimate discussions with China's slon-makers and opinion-setters In all • Time: x930.10.00 EuTiSun Ol 30-02 00 Can gated. Sun 21.30.22:00 BM Sun. 0130. 02:00 Limn SA Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 07/05/2015 Understanding the CPC Episode 1 Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 06/14/2015 Xi Jinping: The Governance of China No MI 2 Nod Moro Closer to China with R L Kuhn 06/28/2015 China Model Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn 06/07/2015 Four- pronged comprehensives strategy Copright 0 2015 Chine Central Televoon. M Rights Reserved Eng5sh I Esisafilol I Francais i‘,•3 I Rya:ma 14)t EFTA00800301 6 I WEDNESDAY. JUNE 5.2013 Views International Heralb &ibune THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream OBAMA MEETS XI JINPING American policy makers must under- stand that the new Chinese leader needs to be a nationalist to be a reformer. Robert Lawrence Kuhn BEIJING What to make of Xi Annuls. China's new senior leader, who holds his first summit meeting this week with President Barack Obama? The hope is that Xi is a reformer who will guide China through domestic transformation and to responsible statecraft. The fear is that Xi is a na- tionalist, who has set China on an ag- gressive course of bullying its neigh- bors and confronting the United States. The fear seems not unfounded. China has intensified its territorial claims, from island disputes with Japan to vast areas of the South China Sea. Xi frequently inspects People's Liber- ation Army forces, especially naval fleets, exhorting China's military to "get ready to fight and to win wan" and "to win regional warfare under I.T.-oriented conditions." Xi holds China's top three positions: head of the ruling Communist Party of China, head of state, and, as chairman of the Central Military Commission, head of the military. He will likely lead China for a decade. Just after becoming party chief in late 2012. Xi announced what would become the hallmark of his administration. "The Chinese Dream," he said, is "the great rejuvenation or the Chinese nation." Xi's Chinese Dream is described as achieving the "T%vo 100s": the material goal of China becoming a "moderately well-off society" by about 2020, the tooth anniversary of the Chinese Com- munist Party, and the modernization goal of China becoming a fully de- veloped nation by about 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic. The Chinese Dream has four parts: Strong China (economically, politically, diplomatically, scientifically, militar- ily); Civilized China (equity and fair- ness, rich culture, high morals); Har- monious China (amity among social classes); Beautiful China (healthy en- vironment, low pollution). "A moderately well-off society" is where all citizens, rural and urban, en- joy high standards of livi in- cludes doubling the 2010 . per cap- ita (approaching 510,000 per person) by about 2020 and completing urbanization (roughly one billion people.70 percent of China's population) by about 2030. "Modernization" means China re- gaining its position as a world leader in science and technology as well as in eco- nomics and business; the resurgence of Chinese civilization,culture and mili- tary might; and China participating ac- tively in all areas of human endeavor. If Xi's nationalism seems at odds with these grand goals, it is not. Here are six reasons why: • Need to consolidate power. Xi was not selected by Deng Xiaoping, the archi- tect of reform, as were his predecessors (Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao), and he was not elected by the people. Conven- tional wisdom had it that Xi would be a weak leader. In order to realize his Chinese Dream, Xi needs to assert strength and assure control. So far, he has exceeded expectations. • Need to enable reform. Xi and Premier Li Keqiang are determined to enact far- reaching economic reforms, the most extensive in 15 years, but there is stiff resistance from those whose domi- nance would be diminished and bene- fits cut (such as state-owned enter- prises with ties to party power). This resistance can no longer be couched credibly in terms of ideology, so it appeals to nationalistic aspirations by accusing reformers of "worshipping Western ways," "glorifying Western models" or "caving in to Western pres- sures:' Xi's proactive nationalism is a strategy or "offense is the best de- fense" — an inoculation, as it were, against the political virus of being labeled "soft" or "pro-Western:' Reformers in China are generally as- sociated with pro-American attitudes and thus subject to fierce public crit- icism. By establishing himself as a na- tionalist operating independently of the United States (his first foreign trip was to Russia), Xi is able to secure econom- ic reforms by distinguishing them from serving Western/American interests. • Need to legitimze one-party rule. To perpetuate its rule (which China's top leaders truly believe is essential for the well-being of the country), the Chinese Communist Party has constructed a grand narrative that is founded on three critical claims: Only the Commu- nist Party can continue to improve cit- izen's standard of living (and amelior- ate severe social and economic disparities); only the party can main- tain a stable, unified country and con- struct a happy, harmonious society; and only the party can effect the "reju- venation of the Chinese nation;' which stresses a firm command of "core in- terests" (i.e., sovereignty and territori- ality) and Increasing global respect. • Maintain stability through unity. China faces numerous internal ten- sions, especially a class-divided popu- lace (rich-poor, urban-rural, coastal-in- land) that have erupted within one generation. Moreover, an increasingly complex society can fracture along mul- tiple fault lines. Pollution, oorruption, healthcare, housing, migrant workers, workers' wages, social cynicism, chan- ging values, among other raging issues, EDITORIAL OPINION threaten to fragment society — and all are exacerbated by an energetic social media. Only nationalism, which reson- ates intrinsically and passionately across Chinese society, can provide suf- ficiently strong social glue. • Differentiate from predecessors. Top Chinese leaders must combine historic- al continuity with their own distin- guishing theories and practices. How shall Xi fare? Economic growth rates must decline. and a host of domestic tensions (or crises) are coming his way, such as public anger at corruption and resis- tance to pollution. Hence another ra- tionale for nationalism. In the past, nationalistic surges were triggered largely by external events (such as NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999). Xi is putting nationalism at the core of his leadership— his nationalism is proactive, riding the high road of pa- triotism and pride. • Personal beliefs. Xi has deep-seated patriotic convictions, the product of family, life and career. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a founder of the new China and a leading reformer under Deng Xiaoping. In 2006. when Xi Jin. ping was party secretary d Zhejiang PrOvinCe, he told me about Chinese pride and patriotism as motivating China's historic resurgence — words remarkably similar to his recent pro- nouncements. So is Xi a reformer? A nationalist? The answer is that he is both, because only by being a nationalist can he be a reformer. American policy makers must understand Xi's nationalism so that when the reigning superpower meets the rising superpower, both can benefit. ROBERT LAWRENCE KUHN is an international investment banker and the author, most recently, of "How China's Leaders Think: The Inside Story of China's Reform and What This Means for the Plitlire." WAWAIMPOMOMPAEMMASERVICIES EFTA00800302 PAGE 32 CHINA DAILY ft 61,eie EUROPEAN WEEKLY JULY 13-19, 2012 Last word The insider with an outside view STRATEGIST, BANKER AND AUTHOR HAS INTIMATE KNOWLEDGE OF CHINA - AND ITS LEADERS By ANDREW MOODY R obert Lawrence Kuhn says the West often doesn't understand the Chinese leadership's key priorities for China. The 67-year-old American is seen by many as one of the few figures outside the world's second- largest economy who actually does. He is regarded as a knowledgeable insider, having been an adviser to a number of leading Chinese bod- ies since the late-1980s and knowing many of the country's top political figures personally. "There is rarely alignment between what topics China's leaders think are important about China and what the world thinks," says Kuhn, also an international corporate strate- gist and investment banker. "Under- standing China requires knowing the difference?" He was speaking recently in the five-star Grand Hyatt hotel in central Beijing, which is his home for 90 days a year. The rest of the time he divides between his three homes in the Unit- ed States and traveling elsewhere. "They treat me very well here. Even when I travel around China, I keep a room here," he says. The hotel is well placed near to China's seat of government around Tian'anmen Square where he has an extensive network of contacts. His latest book, How Chum's Lead- en Think 77ze Inskte Story of China's Past, Current and Future Leaders, which is now out in paperback and more than 500 pages, goes into extensive detail about those who have the responsibility for shaping modem China. Kuhn, who cuts a dapper figure, says many in the West often have an outdated view about modern Chi- nese leaders. "The reality is that China's leaders are meritocraticr he says. "Many have strong academic back- grounds from top universities and all have significant experience, often having run two or more provinces or major municipalities as Party secre- tary, governor or mayor." Kuhn, who is also a new China Daily columnist, is much in demand from major news organizations around the world, including TV appearances on BBC, CNBC, Eurone- ws and Bloomberg TV, and says he has had complete freedom to express his opinions. "1 have written three books about China, dozens of articles and col- umns; I've produced two major TV documentaries about China and given scores of media interviews — and never has anyone in China even requested to censor anything I've published or broadcast outside of China;' he says. Some in the West, however, have accused him of being too much of an insider and not giving the full picture about China because he was too dose to the leadership. Robert Lawrence Kuhn says China's growth is good for the world. but it cannot save the world. FENGYONGEIIN / CHINA DAILY "I deem it vital, considering Chi- na's importance in the world, that China's leaders become more known to the world, and known not just via sound-bites and photo ops, but by seeing them up-close as real people — hearing their own words, listen- ing to their stories, getting their ways of thinking.. pleased to facilitate some of this;' he says. "I also offer my own analysis. As for my accuracy and understand- ing, readers or viewers can judge for themselves." Kuhn, who was bon in New York, began his career as a scientist. After studying biology at John Hopkins University, he did a doctorate in anatomy and brain research at the University of California at Los Ange- les in the 1960s. Brain science and consciousness remain major inter- ests of his. His first involvement in China was through the scientific community in the late-1980s when he worked with scientists reforming Chinat research and technology base. He received an invitation from Song Han, then a State councilor and chairman of the State Science and Technology Com- mission. At the time he was developing a parallel business career and became president of The Geneva Companies, a leading US mergers and acquisi- tions company, which he eventually sold to Citigroup in 2000. At the same time he was cement- ing links with leading business and political figures in China. His organization, The Kuhn Foun- dation, with CCTV (China Central Television), produced the documen- tary InSearch of China for PBS in the US, which was broadcast in 2000. He is now working on a new five- part series China's Challenges, which will be broadcast in China in the autumn and syndicated to PBS sta- tions in the US next year. Perhaps Kuhn's most significant project was writing a biography of former president Jiang Zemin, which was the best-selling book in China in 2005. How China's Leaders Think was based on interviews with more than 100 leading Chinese political figures, some of whom he has known for more than a decade. "I know many personally and have worked with several for a number of years. When you hear them speak over a period of time, it gives you a sense of their personalities and character as well as their intellec- tual capabilities, leadership style and political progress," he says. Kuhn sometimes likes to invoke humor to explain why there is some- times friction between Chinese and American leaders. "Some people think it is because of ideological, historical or cultural reasons that we have communica- tion problems. As I once pointed out, perhaps it's because China'S leaders, the members of the Politburo Stand- ing Committee, were trained as engi- neers, and most American politicians were trained as lawyers. Maybe the problem is that lawyers and engi- neers can't talk to one another!" Kuhn says the main focus in the West is often the Chinese economy and whether it will continue to motor ahead. "China should have 10 to 20 more years of what we should still call rela- tively high growth, driven by con- tinuing the country's unprecedented urbanization and modernization. "Growth rates will naturally ease from reform's historic averages — probably to 6 to 8 percent per annum — which is less than we are used to, but which may be optimal because China can more effectively deal with its most severe problems, particu- larly economic and social imbalances and sustainable development. "However, Chinas economy is frag- ile, vulnerable to exogenous shock China's growth is good for the world, but it cannot 'save the world," he says. Kuhn says there is often a dan- ger of China being misrepresented because it is seen through a narrow perspective. BIO ROBERT LAIA/RENCE KUHN ltemational corporate strategist, 'vestment banker, senior adviser multinational corporations and ithor Age: 67 Education: • Bachelor's degree in human biology. Johns Hopkins University.1964 • PhD in anatomy and brain research. University of California at Los Angeles. 1968 • Master of sciences in management. MIT Sloan School of Management. 1980 Career: • President and co-owner of The Ge- neva Companies. a US leading mergers and acquisitions company (sold to Citigroup in 2001) • Chairman. The Kuhn Foundation. which produces documentaries on scientific and philosophical questions as well as on China issues • Author of The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Ze- mM and How China's Leaders Think. as well as 25 books on business strategy. finance and iwestment banking Books: The Inflationary Universe: The Quest fora New Theory of Cosmic Origins by Alan H. Guth. Lake Views: This World and the Universeby Steven L. Weinberg. The Coherence of Theism by Richard Swinbume, and Infinite Minds: A Philosophical Cosmology by John Leslie. Books on consciousness by John R. Searle. David J. Chalmers and Cohn McGinn. Film: Khachaturian (2003. directed by Peter Rosen: Dora Serviarian-Kuhn. executive producer) Music: Piano Concerto in D-flat Major by Aram Khachaturian (1903-78) played by Kuhn's wife Dora Serviarian-Kuhn Food: "I eat tofu all the time. I appreci- ate the unbeievably different textures." "Western media takes Chinat very real problems and reports them as if they were, say, 80 percent of Chinat story. I take the same problems — which are genuine and often intrac- table — and they consist of, say, 35 percent of my work;' he says. "It is not that Western media is conspiratorially biased or always anti•China, it is that they often do not provide proper and sufficient context;' he says. Huangliantian, Dong Fangyu and %hang Ming connthuted to this story. 9 772045 799003 EFTA00800303 B6 COVER STORY Sunday 25 November 2012 Shanghai Daily On a mission to explain `real' China THE INSIDE STORY OF CHINA'S PAST, CURRENT AND FUTURE LEADERS REVISED EDITION ROBERT LAWRENCE KUHN Above: "How China's Leaders Think" Right: "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin" Ai I don't try to make any- body happy, but I just want to tell the truth. I can be wrong, and maybe my truth is not balanced. Lu Feiran C hi na expert and American public intellec- tual, Robert Lawrence Kuhn is best known in China for two books about Chinese leaders and their views, including a biography of former President Jiang Zemin in 2005 and one about other leaders and their thinking in 2009. Kuhn, also an investment banker, business con- sultant, brain scientist and philosopher, has been granted unprecedented access to Chinese leaders, though he does not speak Chinese. His biography "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin" published in both Chinese and English, was a best-seller in China where readers are not accustomed to humanized biographies of leaders. It was probably the first biography written by a foreigner about a living Chinese leader that was published in China. Kuhn has also produced documentaries on China, written extensively for Chinese media and is often quoted by western media. He is a contributor and consultant to CCTV, some Chinese newspapers and the Xinhua News Agency. Kuhn sees his mission as telling the world about the real China. He was in Shanghai late last month for an In- ternational Channel Shanghai (ICS) program he co-produced and wrote about China's challenges, in conjunction with the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He held a press confer- ence and also spoke with Shanghai Daily. Chinese media sometimes accuse some Westerners and Western media of China bashing, saying they misunderstand or are even malevolent. But 68-year-old Kuhn, a New Yorker, is believed to have a more neutral view for China. He received a bachelor's degree in human biology from Johns Hopkins University, a master's of science in man- agement from the MIT Sloan School of Management, and a PhD in anatomy and brain research from UCLA. His books were published by the Shanghai Trans- lation Publishing House and Shanghai Century Publishing Group. Kuhn said he "never tried to please the Chinese government, though Western media thought I did? "I like feedback, including negative feedback, because I know that people are engaged," he told Shanghai Daily. "I don't try to make anybody happy, but I just want to tell the truth. I can be wrong, and maybe my truth is not balanced." Kuhn's experience with China started in 1989, when he was invited by former State Councilor Song Jian, director of the State Science and Technology Commission. The two became friends and Kuhn began traveling between the US and China, getting to know govern- ment officials and ordinary people. Kuhn said he felt frustrated because his experience in China differed from the description in much of the Western media. "Then they only focused on the negative side and ignored the rest," he said. That disparity inspired him to write Jiang's biog- raphy, he said. Jiang himself said that Kuhn didn't "beautify" him and got his wedding date wrong. Kuhn spent four years writing "The Man Who Changed China." Though he had only met Jiang three times and did not interview him for the book, he talked to many people close to Jiang, including rela- tives, friends and colleagues, gathering stories and perceptions. He became close to many of them. "I thought I had been rather familiar with China before I started working on the book," said Kuhn. "But after I started collecting the information, I found that my knowledge was very limited." Humanized leader Kuhn said he was determined to depict a real, ani- mated Jiang, different from the seemingly impassive figure appearing on state occasions, on Chinese TV and in newspapers. "For a very long time, Chinese leaders were either described as God or the Devil, but never in-between," he said. "So I expected to display a Chinese leader who is a human being." Soon after publication, it became a best-seller in China. After Kuhn held a book-signing in Guang- zhou, Guangdong Province, more than 300 books were sold in an hour. In Shanghai, more than a million copies were sold in 2005, the highest in the social science category. Chinese readers called the book refreshing be- cause it told daily life stories and described Jiang's youth. One Internet user called "Burn the scarecrow" said before reading the biography, he thought Jiang was "a quiet man standing high above the masses." "But after reading the book, my first feeling was that he was once young like us and he is also an ordinary man." The English version, however, received some criti- cism, primarily that Kuhn was "fawning" over Jiang and the government. Kuhn denied that. "In fact, the book had a disclaimer, saying all EFTA00800304 Wisilom comes willi Global People 读环球人物获人生智慧 环球人物 r刁〗 第32期 总第201朗 201 2 年12月6日 与中国友情深厚 库恩谈 中共新领导 五大任务 美国将军 腐化生活 罗阳，没喝上最后的庆功酒 何亮亮：“廉政公署不可复制” 苹果设计团队的秘密领袖 有种气质叫“桂纶镁” 伊 鲁价 EFTA00800305 一－ □ 呻 － 一－ 2006年3月，库恩在浙江与习近平会谈° 情地Ij他们聊天．再从庞杂的素材中挑选 自己薷鳖的故事 库恩坦言．崔写这本书的过程申．自 己与江泽彘仅仅在公开场合见过3 攻面。 "1993 年．ill泽民对古巴进行国事访间． 住在古巴国宾铺．当时．拢也窥那里：我 站在走廊上．而他正好也走了出来｝那是 我们的第一次见面u"2000 年9 月．1!:泽 1i 赴纽约参加联合国于禧年首脑峰会．他 在一次招待会上第二次见到1l-泽彘曲3 缂 后．库愍又在北京听了江泽昆关于儿个重 要ri题的讲话口尽管没采访刭1l-泽民本人． 库恩却并不觉得有什么遗憾°在他看来． 这本书只是传记而非自传．没必要非采访 到本人。 为了完成这本书．库恩总是随身带着 手挝电痴．一有空就开始写作．从周一一到 劂五．他常常l：作至凌晨°每当他在吃完 饭后一头钻进书房．妻子总会调侃他“又 去见扛泽昆了气整蝼4 缂．3 次重写．5 次编辑．库恩光资料就搜集了3加0 万字． 第-稿70 万字 2加5 年．一本47 万字的＜他改变了 中国一一江泽民传＞出版-首批印刷的20 万腓 仅I0 多天就销售一空口为新书做 巡回推广时．由于签名数蝎太多．庳恩的 手肘甚至有些劳损．一‘影响了打网球”° 走访中国40多个城市 艺他改变了中国——江泽彘传＞的成 功．i上库恩有了进一步探寻I{I国整体形无 的想法＠他于是带着助手．开嫱走访中国 410 多个墟市．进行深入的、大规模的调查 研究｝ 就是在这次调研过w中．2005 镩2 月 26I:!．厍恩在浙江西子宾馆见到了时任浙 江省委书记习近平e 习近平向库恩介绍了 浙讧的经济、历兜和文化等方面的情况． 并感谢庳恩多雒来从自己独到的角度研究 申国、向III界介绍中国．在申美两国之问 搭起了文化的桥梁。 次缂3 月．库恩再次来到浙1!:.这一 次．他的目的是了解‘’浙江模式”白虽然 是不期而玺．但习近平仍挤出时问与他见 面。习近平说．自己之所以娶这么做．是 要“表示找们对库恩先生关注中冈、客观 介绍中国的感激之意气 库恩回忆说．习近早在那次谈话中强 COVER PEOPLE 封而人物 调了中国自改苹开放以来发生的翻天迁地 的变化。一“有句老话．士别崖日当刮目相 看。你一个月不来．半年不来．中国就会 有很大的变化岔’他又补充说．‘但如鲎结 合I{I国悠久的历虫来分折．又不会惊讶于 它变化之快．因为我们经历了几千年才走 到这一步。无论找们怎么看待这一速度． 中国的发展变化．至少在一定翟度上．是 由爱国热情和昆族FI紊感推动的："' 衬：库恩印象最深的是．在谈及如何以 硷好的方式向世界介绍中国时．习近平挝 扦I．中国的情况无法用简单的一句话来描 述．或用单一的方法来概括．并借用中国 冉代寓言‘’盲人摸象＂来说冽这个向题｝“他 把申国富裕的东部沿海比作大象的腿．而 将中国广袤的西部比作大无宽闹的后背． 认为‘象是一个完整的概念．必须全面地 了解．要避免犯盲人摸象的错误’口”对库 恩来说．这样的比喻是新颖而有用的．这 个说法．他刭现在还记得。 接连的调研．封：库恩对中国有了更深 入的认识。 2阗7 年12 月9 日．时任中宣部部长 刘云山在’j库恩的一次会谈申趋议．如 果由他来写一部关于申国改革30 年的书． 一定很有意义口库恩知道．这次又说到他 心坎上了。 库恩列出了一份庞大的采访名单．每 次采访前．他会向被采访对St挝供崖四十 个向题的采访挝纲．后者通常会选搛其申 的二忌十个作答：采访结东后．库恩再根 据采访录音进行蝼理．并对其中拟及的年 份、数字和事实进行核实。 在与100 余位省部级官员、企业领袖 和专家学者沟通交流．并采访了in多改革 开放的亲历者后．库恩用5 个月时问完成 了80 万字的初稿扩‘找的家人说．姨姨一・年． 他们只能看到找的后脑勺。” 2008 年12 月．＜申国30 年：人类社 会的一次伟大变a＞申文版在中国发行u 镝二缂．为纪念新申国成立粼｝厨缂．该 喁葜文版在全球出版发行岔戳至目前．这 本书是唯一由外国人详细描述中国改革开 放30 年进w的书籍曲a 担弱It绨勉目望 甏担l蟊立策 田擒l袢螅 靳tI负J蓑匪丁子 31 一 十 一 － EFTA00800306 i411.4:1 2016*-1A118. ligtf/tAtAff*filiE a€K. t zsmiza ants) EFTA00800307