EFTA Document EFTA01385533

> TMT 0 Informa — Chris Collett, BUY, close 713.8p, 880p tgt, 23% upside ■ 2018 as the turning point. Investors have been sceptical of the Growth Acceleration Plan; we think the company finally delivers >3% organic revenue growth in 2018 (DBe +3.1%). ■ We believe our forecasts are conservative. We estimate 6% organic growth in Exhibitions (37% of operating profit) in 2018; growth has averaged c9% over the past three years. - Product re-launches and improved retention could also provide upside to our estimate of 3% in Business Intelligence (18% of operating profit). ■ Academic Publishing should improve (37% of operating profit). We forecast 1% growth, but with the disposal of Garland Science, better books integration and a dynamic new divisional CEO, there is further upside. - Management has also reassured on a recent earnings call that margins would be protected. ■ Knowledge & Networking turnaround (8% of operating profit). Revenue growth turned positive in July-October 2017 after underlying declines every year since 2013. ■ We expect the unwarranted discount to peers to close as Informa re- rates. Informa trades at PIE discounts of 2.5pts to Wolters Kluwer (despite identical organic growth) and 4.5pts to RELX (whose organic growth is only 1pp higher). Informa trades on 14.9x 2019E PIE. ■ Catalysts: FY-17 28'h February Related DB Research: In the 3% club: raising TP to 880p (Collett) Deutsche Bank Positive organic growth across all divisions (split by operating profit, 2016) Knowledge & Networking (9%) OG. FY17/18/19. 0.0%/1.5%/3.0% Global Exhibitions (29%) OG: P117/18/19: 8.0%/6.0%/5.0% Business Intelligence (17%) OG: FY17/18/19: 2.0%/3.0%/3.0% Source: Deutsche Bank Academic (45%) Organic revenue growth: FY17/18/19: 0.7%/1.0%/1.5% Informa trades on a discount to global information peers PE EV/EBITDA opt iiap 2017 2018 2017 2018 CoreLogic 15.6 14.6 12.4 11.5 Experian 25.6 24.2 13.8 13.3 IHS Markit 21.4 19.2 15.5 14.3 Thomson Reuters 18.0 16.7 11.1 10.4 Verisk Analytics 29.2 28.0 17.7 16.6 Median oure-elay BI 21,4 19.2 13,8 13.3 Informa 15.2 14.7 12.2 11.3 Informa vs. median (28.9%) (214%) (11.4%) (15.0%) Source: Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Re6Parch• European. Equity Focus - Jarrutery 201B CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233003 DB-SDNY-0086819 EFTA01385533